Description: In this expository paper several comments are made with respect to the statistical independence of the curtate future lifetime and the fractional part of the future lifetime, both of a general status. In particular, the conditions for independence need to be stated carefully. The last-survivor status is cited as an example. More general assumptions than the uniform distribution of deaths assumption are then considered, together with applications to insurances, annuities, and reserves. Similar results to those under the uniform distribution of deaths assumption are obtained. Brief comments are made with respect to contingent probabilities in multiple lives and multiple decrement theory.

Description: Recaps the evolution of VA products and hedging programs. Reflects on strategic considerations that contributed to relative performance in this market.

Description: This paper considers the pension plan as part of the capital structure of the sponsoring employer, enabling lessons from financial theory concerning capital structure to be used to answer the questions about what assets a pension fund should hold. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: Discussion of the US Social security system from the perspective of Asset Liability management theory. From Asset-Liability Integration, M-FI02-1.

Description: Scenario analysis and stress tests based on consideration of shock events and their possible repercussions can provide useful information to management and regulators on a company’s resiliency through a chain of events, as well as support the consideration of a firm’s operations as an integral part of a wider financial system. We discuss how scenario analysis and stress testing can be used to define a company’s risk appetite, which is at the core of a well-embedded ERM framework. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This paper shows how discrete multivariate analysis or multidimensional contingency table methods may be applied to data arising in actuarial work. A brief introduction to the theory is followed by two detailed examples of its application. Finally, the concluding remarks indicate how the procedure could be incorporated into a complete rate-making procedure. This work was performed for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Description: The author will show that risk management is more than combining several processes and methods it is much more a company wide approach that enables an open dealing with chances and risks, requiring a change in culture, governance and decision rules across the whole organizations.

Description: A frustrating aspect of pension funding rules for U.S. plan sponsors is that contribution requirements are adversely correlated with business cycles. For example, not only did plan sponsors get hit with large contribution requirements in the perfect storm of the early 2000s, but many sponsors were prohibited from contributing in the late 1990s boom due to full funding limitations. This paper proposes that plan sponsors be allowed to contribute the normal cost as a deductible contribution each year. In hindsight, this would have allowed plan sponsors to pay for benefits as they accrued in the late 1990s and ultimately mitigated some of the crash of the early 2000s. The authors aim to demonstrate that a contribution policy allowing contributions to be at least equal to the normal cost will result in less volatility of contributions and improve the funded status over time.

Description: This paper examines some new Bayesian models for loss reserving inspired by a consideration of some of the methods and techniques appearing in the traditional chain ladder literature. This includes a possibly order restricted hierarchical Bayesian model for the year over year development factors. The issues of reserve variability and ranges of reasonable reserve estimates are considered. A new Bornhuetter-Ferguson styled Bayesian method of estimate revision is also discussed. These Bayesian models can be implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC methods in a variety of programming languages, and can serve as starting points for more advanced models. This paper describes their implementation in WinBUGS a specialized software program for MCMC simulations. Illustrative WinBUGS code is included.

Description: This article sees enterprise risk management as a specific application of knowledge in Order to control deviations from strategic objectives, shareholders’ values and stakeholders’ relationships. Before and after a modeling process it is necessary to find insights into how the application of knowledge management processes can improve the understanding of risk and the implementation of enterprise risk management. The article presents a proposed methodology to contribute to providing a guide for developing risk modeling knowledge and a reduction of knowledge silos, in order to improve the quality and quantity of solutions related to risk inquiries across the organization.