Description: Early detection and assessment of insurer’s insolvency risk are critically important to regulators, insurers, policyholders, and investors for fiduciary assessment of insurer’s financial stability and for protection of potential financial loss associated with insurer’s insolvency. This proposed study aims to develop a market-based insolvency prediction model to detect financially distressed insurers at an early stage with the information content of higher moments from the market.

Description: This research report summarizes methodologies used for yield curve extrapolation to value liability cash flows that extend beyond the maximum observavble portion of the yield curve.

Description: This research report summarizes methodologies used for yield curve extrapolation to value liability cash flows that extend beyond the maximum observavble portion of the yield curve.

Description: This research report examines readers to Insurance-linked securities (ILSs) emphasizing catastrophe bonds (CAT) and industry loss warranties (ILWs).

Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries' Joint Risk Management Section and the Joint Risk Management Research Committee are pleased to make available a new report on the application of ERM. Authored by Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, Sim Segal, Michael Wolfson and Heidi Walsh, the report provides a novel demonstration on how ERM can be applied to serve the Canadian public by informing decision makers on the risks facing the current and future delivery of long-term care.

Description: Report summarizing the results of the 2019 PBITT UL with Secondary Guarantees Survey.

Description: Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), has annually conducted a Survey of Emerging Risks. As the researcher for this project, I have asked open-ended questions thought to be useful to risk managers. In this article, I will summarize one of those questions from the 2015 and 2016 surveys and provide some perspectives for Canadian actuaries: Are there lessons learned that you would like to share with risk managers developing an enterprise risk management (ERM) framework (e.g., what worked, what did not)?

Description: Results of the PBITT Working Group annual Variable Annuity Survey.

Description: This study examines and describes parameter uncertainty. The paper provides structures to incorporate parameter uncertainty in quantifying risk.