Description: The main focus of this article revolves around pension plans and their funding levels.

Description: Read the February 2020 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section. Newsletter provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Issue overview and editorial on how the actuary of today must embrace the Complexity Science and Advanced Analytics tools of today in order to remain viable in a world where the skills of yesterday are no longer unique to actuaries.

Description: The article is about how current advancements in AI can both help and potentially replace actuaries. We focus on three types of AI as defined by Numenta.org: Classic AI, Machine Learning, and Machine Intelligence. We present how Machine Learning and Machine Intelligence can affect actuarial analysts and actuaries alike. We then show how Machine Intelligence can be used to help regulators possibly construct a system or model that dynamically learns the behavior of insurance companies to predict failing insurance companies.

Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.

Description: This article compares three potential approaches to determining new coefficients for health-based risk scoring models: full recalibration, p-value credibility weighting, and penalized ridge regression.

Description: The article gives a brief history of the development of the Delphi method, and describes the use of the Delphi method in studies by the Society of Actuaries over the past 25 years.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: The chairperson of the section council issues call to members asking them to volunteer. He indicates that in particular, with the emergence of complexity science and other underutilized tools, there is plenty of room for volunteers, especially open spaces for new thought leaders.

Description: Summary of all issue articles, with theme of recognizing limits of classical actuarial methods.