Description: This article is the second installment in a three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I was published in the November 2019 issue. Part II addresses critical considerations in selecting, building, using, and validating ESGs. The article discusses key criteria in understanding ESGs including: - Risk factors - Scenario type - Process and parameterization - Calibration - Number of scenarios - Timing considerations

Description: The article describes the nature of actuarial research conducted at the Goldenson Center at the University of Connecticut. One of the research projects to create a National Retirement Sustainability Index is analyzed in detail. It demonstrates how the work we do at the Goldenson Center is both an art and a science while satisfying the following research criteria we adhere to at the Goldenson Center:  >The problem has to come from industry  >The solution has to add value to what is currently done in practice  >The solution has to be implementable

Description: Traditional risk scoring models include only fixed (non-random) demographic and condition-based variables. By including the provider effect as part of the risk scoring model as a random effect, we can get better estimates of provider performance (incorporating practice patterns conditional on patient morbidity profile). This approach can be generalized to study other factors that are now masked in error variance (i.e. area, Social Determinants) but if modeled could give us better estimates of risk

Description: Article reviews the data a year into the unwinding of continuous coverage provisions in Medicaid, the impact on enrollment counts, how capitation rates have been adjusted, and compares those results to what has been modeled with the SOA Mediciad Unwinding model.

Description: Discusses insurance company considerations and approaches when dealing with the complexities of deferred lives within pension plans.

Description: The author suggests that true actuarial method is a blend of all three modes of thinking, clinical, statistical and heuristic, and using all three early in our processes will make us smarter modelers. From The Actuary, February 2012, Volume 9, Issue 1.

Description: During March 2020, COVID-19 concerns escalated in the U.S. and lockdown measures were announced. Market returns in March 2020 were quite extreme and choppy, alternating between days of huge gains and losses. As investors prepare for the future, it is important to understand whether these volatility surges and sharp movements are understood and captured by commonly used models. In this article, we will explore equity market performance in 2020 using the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SP500TR) and the relevant equity modeling implications

Description: Frank Redington, the author of the article, reminiscenses of the origin of immunisation beginning in 1951.

Description: This is one of a series of SOA-sponsored papers on the subject of Evaluating the Results of Care Management Interventions. This paper addresses the theory of measurement design and provides a practical evaluation of the most common designs for the practitioner.

Description: Discover the key components of value-based care (VBC) contracts and their impact on provider credibility. Learn about benchmarks, measurement period results, and the unique challenges providers face in managing insurance risk. Gain insights into reducing costs and aligning financial incentives in the US healthcare market.