Description: This paper explains a method of computation for the probability of survival which may often be more expeditious than the methods in common use, particularly when the number of lives is large. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1959, Vol. 11, No. 29 AB.

Description: Read the November 2019 issue of The Modeling Platform, published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: This session from the 1993 Valuation Actuary Symposium focuses on general modeling issues associated with the completion of the opinion and memorandum required by revisions to the Standard Valuation Law. It concentrates on liability modeling.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session number 34PD, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. A fundamental step in stochastic asset/liability modeling is to choose an appropriate underlying economic scenario generator. In this session, panelists discuss various scenario generation techniques and theories, assumptions underlying interest and equity scenario generators, and choosing suitable economic scenario generators for different applications, the two most common being pricing models [for assets and liabilities], and risk analysis models, used for asset/liability management, investment strategy, regulatory solvency, and capital adequacy. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: This paper provides actuaries with background and scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century.

Description: This document provides answers to the exercises in the report titled Complexity Science – an introduction and invitation for actuaries:.

Description: This section contains book reviews and a select bibliography. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1973, Vol. 25, Pt. 1, No. 73. Book topics include statistics, quantitative methods for determining IBNR, and Investing for a Financial Institution. Other books on actuarial and insurance topics are briefly discussed.

Description: Complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions. Use data-driven assumptions, making sure the time series includes stressed environments when possible. If a model of underwriting risk indicates that the probability of accident year combined ratios experienced from 1998 to 2000 is remote, it is not a realistic model

Description: This paper expands the calculation of a group's credibility factor from a traditional univariate one-dimensional single layer model to: 1. a univariate one dimensional two layer model, 2. a multivariate one dimensional single layer model, and 3. a univariate two dimensional single layer models.

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.