Description: This is the fourth paper on n-year roll forward reserve financing of public benefit systems, especially Old-Age, Survivors and disability Insurance OASDI, prepared by University of Michigan faculty and students. As the papers have developed, some ideas have been simplified, while others have become more complex. It is concluded that the theoretical model requires further attention. This research can be extended to expand our knowledge of OASDI financing and the applicability of n-year roll forward reserve financing.

Description: This paper compares the development of the more flexible reporting for pension commitments by the sponsoring employer in Australia to the standard-driven reporting in the United States and the United Kingdom. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: In a series papers by Willmot and Lin, both exponential and non-exponential bounds for the tail probability of various compound distributions have been derived. In Wilmot, it was suggested that non-exponential bounds for the ruin probability were difficult to obtain using martingale arguments. In this note, we show how to use martingale inequalities to obtain some upper bounds for the ruin probability.

Description: In this paper, we introduce a political risk variable, d, to measure risk of foreign direct investment FDI. The political risk variable has opposite effects of loss reduction and loss prevention in Ehrlich and Becker 1972. The unique characteristics of political risk insurance make the applications of actuarially-based pricing models infeasible. In this study, by taking into account the effects of self-protection and self-insurance through the variable d and by maximizing utility function, we find the equilibrium for insured and insurer in a competitive market and in a monopoly one. In addition, under the equilibrium status, the boundary for the amount of investment, the insurance coverage, and the minimum required rate of return on the FDI are derived.

Description: Contemporary ERM has moved from an event-based view of risk to a hierarchical, systems-based approach. In order to operationalize such an approach, a methodology is proposed in this paper that draws on phylogenetic approaches that have been successfully developed for biological evolution. The technique and process provide an insight into the lineage, pace and impact of external conditions on the evolution of risks. They also provide a unique and rational classification of risk in an enterprise that can be used to optimize risk management resources. An example of a fictitious insurance company is used to illustrate the approach. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Traditional mean-variance method does not take skewness of the random rate of return into consideration. It only considers minimum variance for a given acceptable rate of return, which limited the probability of obtaining higher rate of return. If the skewness of return for the portfolio is incorporated into model of traditional approach, then the resulting non-linear programing model is not computational efficient, which certainly is complicated. On the other hand, possibilistic programming provides more efficient techniques to solve the imprecision nature of rate of return and also preserves the original linear model.

Description: This paper discusses the quality of healthcare verses the price of healthcare and puruses individuals and doctors making decisions for their own healthcare costs and services.

Description: This paper, first published in 1982 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 34, discusses the phenomenon of durational antiselection, a commonly observed steady and seemingly irreversible increase in loss ratios on mature blocks of individual health insurance policies. The author, William F. Bluhm, constructs a model to explain the deterioration of loss ratios over time, and to quantify the cumulative antiselection effect. This paper was awarded the 1980-82 Triennial Prize. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of discussion.

Description: This article sees enterprise risk management as a specific application of knowledge in Order to control deviations from strategic objectives, shareholders’ values and stakeholders’ relationships. Before and after a modeling process it is necessary to find insights into how the application of knowledge management processes can improve the understanding of risk and the implementation of enterprise risk management. The article presents a proposed methodology to contribute to providing a guide for developing risk modeling knowledge and a reduction of knowledge silos, in order to improve the quality and quantity of solutions related to risk inquiries across the organization.

Description: This paper attempts a model for a mix of DB and DC retirement plans that meets the dual objectives of predictability of employer cash contributions, and sufficient employee retirement benefit. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.