Description: In this session 35TS of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, the instructor provides simple tools and guidelines to better ensure that correct conclusions are drawn. This material is presented without the use of complex mathematical formulas. Topics include appropriateness of the assumption of normality including discussion of the distribution of a conditional tail expectation, drawing inferences about population means and tail percentiles, and uses and pitfalls of linear regression analysis.

Description: From the 1986 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Washington DC in October 1986 Examination of the nuts and bolts of cash flow testing analysis.

Description: In session 40PD of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, panelists discuss theories and assumptions underlying scenario generators, evaluating appropriateness of generated scenarios, choosing suitable economic scenario generators and use of representative scenarios.

Description: Presented at October 1985 Annual Meeting. This session focused on three projects funded by the Actuarial Education and Research Fund: risk models, operations research applications for actuaries and probability modeling of losses.

Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 3 looks at considerations in strengthening reserves as a result of cash flow testing results.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 46TS, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. In this session, the instructor discusses simple tools and guidelines to ensure that correct inferences are drawn. The material is presented without using complex mathematical formulas. Topics include application of a normal distribution—when it is appropriate and when it is not, drawing inferences about and creating confidence intervals around tail percentile, and Monte Carlo Simulations for Regulation XXX.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 3, from the 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The first instructor discusses three methods of valuation [and methods of studying C-3 risk]: Gross Premium Valuation [the actuary’s traditional approach], Cash Flow Analysis, and Market Value Analysis, also known as ‘Modern Financial Analysis,’ with a focus on the third. Then the second instructor provides an update on C-2 risk [claims, expenses], and combinations of risk, noting that C-2 risk has not had much attention paid to it. He goes on to describe three types of C-2 risk: stochastic deviations, unpredictable single events, and ‘judgment errors, such as poor underwriting. The third instructor focuses on the C-1 [default] risk. Case studies are included.

Description: Panelists at this session at the SOA 1998 Maui I Spring Meeting present methods and models for determining policyholder behavior with respect to lapses and interest rates in order to value liabilities and embedded options in life and annuity products.

Description: In session 14 MM of the Washington Annual Meeting the instructor summarizes the research topics presented at the actuarial research conference held at the University of Calgary during August 1997. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 23, No. 3.

Description: 1988 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this session the speaker described the modeling of the participating whole life division including the product description, modelling assumptions, operation of the model, and the results.