Description: The June/July 2014 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: Complete issue of the August 2014 Risk Management newsletter.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This study investigates whether simulation-based models can be used to predict liquidity risk for banks, which must comply with Basel III by January 2015. The paper looks at the process of developing a measurement framework using Black-Scholes and Merton’s asset-based models to measure liquidity risk.

Description: Defined benefit plans have been disappearing from the private sector retirement program landscape. 401k Plans that have taken their place are not designed to provide retiree lifetime income. Individuals seldom work for a single employer and thus have many retirement accounts spread about. This commentary discusses an alternative approach to providing retirement income a voluntary basis in a vehicle that is decoupled from employers.

Description: The Society of Actuaries Research Institute developed a new study to explore pharmacy financing. The goals of the SOA related to this research are to identify opportunities to increase transparency, encourage competition, align stakeholder incentives and mitigate increases in total cost of care. The research uses a value-based methodology.

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: This article provides an overview of activities that should be considered by an actuary when validating a predictive model. It describes several components to consider when validating a predictive model and provides an examination of various methodologies that can be implemented in the validation process.

Description: An interview with actuary Lee Gold reveals preliminary results of a recent SOA research project which surveyed employees on what retirement plan features they prefer.

Description: This article attempts to make a modest contribution to the dialogue on the potential and risks associated with novel treatments such as cell & gene therapies. With a fast-expanding roster of what are believed to be one-time treatments at ever increasing price points aimed at curing a wider swatch of the population, they are as much a source of relief for patients stuck in medical limbo, as they are a source of anxiety for payers.

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.