Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: The objective of this report is to provide benchmarking information that will help companies address the needs of internal stakeholders in cost-effectively conducting and implementing an ORSA process. In order to obtain this benchmarking information, a cross-disciplinary survey was conducted to find out what insurance companies understand and expect from an ORSA, the effort required to complete an ORSA, and the benefits from doing so. This survey was undertaken on a global basis, with participants that included life, property and casualty (P&C), often referred to as "non-life" or "general" insurers in territories such as Europe, and health insurance companies in North America (the United States and Canada), Europe, and Asia.

Description: Presented at June 1996 Spring Meeting. Inability to quantify the volatility in individual disability income insurance is one of the key reasons for loss experiences in the industry. Discussion covers: volatility measures for reserving, application of reserve adequacy criteria under various plan designs, application of volatility measures to pricing, and a test of the effectiveness of volatility measures.

Description: We demonstrate an integrated enterprise risk management (ERM) solution to optimize the risk portfolio, identify natural hedges, create an optimal risk treatment plan, enhance risk culture, and facilitate risk reporting throughout the organization.

Description: The adoption of FAS 158 forces sponsors of post-employment health benefit plans to consider how to manage the volatility that changes in medical care inflation create in the other postemployment benefits (OPEB) liability. By choosing carefully how the nominal discount rate used for the liability is decomposed into real rates and inflation, I illustrate that the true exposure to an OPEB plan is to the spread of medical care inflation above (or below) the overall inflation rate. The implication is that an effective immunization strategy exists that can eliminate most of the volatility in the OPEB account.

Description: This paper presents the probabilistic concepts underlying measurement of asset adequacy in a simplified way. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: This study presents a new framework which can measure integrated marked risk and credit risk for portfolios consisting of various assets through continuous time horizons. In a simulation, the study shows that asset type, initial rating, time horizon and asset return distribution assumptions are all significant factors to influence the portfolio value distributions and hence the integrated VaRs. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: Wavelet models are used to analyze risk by time and frequency and provide richer information than time series models.

Description: This paper recommends the practical application of new portfolio risk/return measurements to achieved and back tested stock portfolio performance. This new risk measurement process addresses the issue of infinite variances empirically observed in most stock return distributions. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: This dissertation by Tia Sawhney will help you understand this issue and start measuring it, or start promoting equitable public policy.