Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: Dealing with more known unknowns? More scary knowns? Or unknown unknowns? What is the next unthinkable? What future events should actuaries actively be modelling and keep us up at night? The Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) put forth a call for essays exploring these risks. The Program Steering Committee selected these essays submitted by Sam Gutterman and Max Rudolph to publish, and are awarding them each a prize of $500. The Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee congratulates the authors and is happy to publish the winning essays on the SOA website.

Description: An update of selected key graphs from the Key Statistics section of previous COVID-19 briefs.

Description: In this Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute report, authored by consultants from Milliman, Inc. (Milliman) we aim to study the effects of hurricanes on human health: whether there is a relationship between hurricanes and the observed prevalence of healthcare utilization or certain health conditions among the affected population, whether this relationship can be observed through a healthcare utilization dataset, and whether there is an interaction between this observation and metrics of socioeconomic vulnerability.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper entitled 'Pricing Long Term Insurance Contracts.' This paper considers several models describing the changes in the needs of the insured for care over time. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: This tool created graphs of Google's mobility Data. This version of the tool contains global, country-level data through July 31, 2020

Description: Research project that assesses the accuracy of commonly used IBNR estimation methods for medical insurance over a wide range of scenarios. The methods are summarized, practical considerations in making the comparisons and the development of the data simulations for the comparisons are discussed.

Description: Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19. Updated April 24, 2020.

Description: The SOA has translated four of its AIT report summaries into both Traditional and Simplified Chinese. They are “Behavioral Science”, “Big Data and the Future Actuary”, “Cancer Genomics”, and “Cloud Computing and Machine Learning Uses in the Actuarial Profession.

Description: Dataset to accompany Fifty States, Fifty Stories: A Decade of Health Care Reform Under the Affordable Care Act - Technical Report