Description: This paper examines the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds. Catastrophe risk cannot be hedged by traditional securities. Therefore the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds requires an incomplete markets setting and this creates special difficulties in the pricing methodology. The paper briefly discusses the theory of equilibrium pricing and its relationship to the standard arbitrage-free valuation framework. Equilibrium pricing theory is used to develop a pricing method based on a model of the term structure of interest rates and a probability structure for the catastrophe risk. This pricing methodology can be used to assess the default spread on catastrophe risk bonds relative to traditional defaultable securities.

Description: 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Lake Buena Vista, FL. In this teaching session the instructor explained how to scrutinize model results and use models to make strategic decisions. Specific topics included validation of asset models, modeling considerations for derivatives and assets with embedded options, using models to assist with portfolio management, and using models to improve portfolio yields and realized product spreads.

Description: The birthday rule is used to determine whether the father's or the mother's insurer is liable for a child's medical bills, where the liability rests with the insurer of the parent whose birthday falls in the first half of the year. It is assumed that the odds are even that the liable insurer will be the mother's, vs. the father's. This paper demonstrates how the key determinant of whether this assumption is valid is the distribution of the difference in spouses' ages.

Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 3 looks at considerations in strengthening reserves as a result of cash flow testing results.

Description: Life and annuity markets around the world have seen increasingly complex investment-combined products, including universal life, fixed indexed annuities, variable annuities with a wide variety of guaranteed benefits and indexed variable annuities. Insurance companies are facing unprecedented exposure to financial risks in addition to traditional mortality and longevity risks. The risk assessment and modeling for such complex designs by conventional methods often focus heavily on their market competitiveness and profitability. However, there seems to be a lack of quantifiable and systematic approaches to assess investment risks associated with investment combined products. The objective of the proposed work is to develop a framework for quantifying and analyzing various forms of contractual designs and showcase different techniques to assess the trade-off between competitive contractual designs and their practical implications regarding the difficulty of risk management.

Description: This paper presents a policy-year model for GAAP valuation of reinsurance accepted on the coinsurance and modified coinsurance bases. Also presented are the interrelationships between the model's methodology and statutory accounting procedures, a discussion of experience-refunding situations, and a demonstration of the model's ability to yield GAAP profits as a level percentage of premium. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: Describes purpose of ARCH and editorial policy.

Description: In this paper, a general multivariate duration analysis is introduced that does not depend on a mathematical formulation of the way in which a yield curve moves. To motivate the multivariate approach, simple examples are presented that demonstrate the limitations of the traditional model when yield curve shifts are not parallel.

Description: This session at the 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium focuses on modeling issues for variable annuities from both a statutory and GAAP standpoint. Valuation actuary issues with respect to variable annuity modeling is also discussed.

Description: The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report develops a framework for forecasting cause specific death rates. Included also is a Cause of Deaths Forecasting Tool and a user guide for the tool.