Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a refresher on regression and times series models so that actuaries will feel more comfortable building forecasting models.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?

Description: The article describes the key components of actuarial model, leading practices in designing them, and characteristics of well-built models.

Description: Appendix D is round 2 - reasons for projections from the Delphi study. See SOA website Research section for the full report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the appendices.

Description: This article describes some of the drawbacks to the assessment of longevity risk adopted by most practitioners within the UK together with an initiative that provides a platform for an alternative approach that is both (a) more forward-looking in nature and (b) can complement current practices.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2002. This paper proposes a standard operating procedure for testing the Gompertz assumption using yearly age-specific mortality data, and the impacts of the data collection period and population sizes on the testing results are discussed.

Description: A look at the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, and how it differs from both prior financial crises and pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic gives actuaries an opportunity to assess different ways risk may interact, and thereby adjust the profession’s work for the future.

Description: Describes what a Delphi study is and why actuaries might want to use one.

Description: Identifies current trends and considerations when setting the mortality improvement assumption for individual life insurance in the US.