Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Project Oversight Group for research on economic assumptions has prepared a survey seeking input on economic assumptions needed to make a projection of a company's operation.

Description: December 2016 edition of Predictive Analytics & Futurism

Description: A view of Social Security disability experience for 1970 through 1978, and future projected trends based on observed application, approval, and recovery rates.

Description: Article covering Futurism.

Description: Provides details of the 2nd forecasting competition for the best model that predicts the Civilian Unemployment Rate 'UNRATE', measured on a monthly basis, from March-end 2012 through September-end 2012.

Description: This article is about research studies that use the Delphi technique. It describes what a Delphi study is and gives a thumbnail sketch of two Delphi studies the Society of Actuaries has sponsored in the past 10 years, as well as a recently initiated Delphi study.

Description: This teaching session is about conveying to users of models and forecasts how uncertain the outcome of stochastic projections really is.

Description: A discussion of the process and results report “A Study of the Use of the Delphi Method, A Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for Judgments.”

Description: The purpose of this delightful and stimulating book is the identification of new products for the marketplace. Anyone interested in predicting the future should read it. The book surveys the batting average of futurists, which IS amazingly low. About 20 years ago, Herman Kahn predicted 100 changes that would occur by the end of the century.

Description: Information about a social insurance modeling mini-seminar at the SOA’s 2010 Annual Meeting