Description: Combinations of risks are an important component of the Survey of Emerging Risks, now in its 15th iteration. Also known as risk clusters or compound risks, the most popular in the survey define threat multipliers, where a risk makes other risks worse. The top risks chosen are trended for the last 10 years, showing interesting cycles and discontinuities.

Description: Apart from their operating environment and the core risks they help others mitigate, organizations are largely impacted by behaviors--particularly those of their policyholders. This session builds on the first session in this series by considering how medical advances might influence policyholders, while also considering how agents/brokers, product design, and the economy can also be influencers. Weigh whether and to what extent behavioral uncertainties have been adequately integrated into the firms' assessments of business performance, both past and future. The presenters will also highlight activities being undertaken by firms to influence behaviors, in part building on the second session in this series by considering these activities through a regulatory lens. This session is for anyone interested in enhancing their understanding of uncertainty due to behavioral factors.

Description: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been our chosen metric for growth since the Great Depression, but expectations are for lower GDP growth going forward than we are accustomed to. Its two components, population and productivity, face headwinds—population from a declining birth rate and longevity, and productivity from increased climate events, energy costs, global conflict and raw materials shortages. Comparing demographic results from the U.S., China and Nigeria, representing countries with varying population growth rates, illustrates the potential economic growth issues of aging populations and high dependency ratios. The demographic challenges can be turned into opportunities to broaden prosperity; productivity can be improved by providing a level playing field and helping those in the lowest socioeconomic classes find opportunities. These topics and more will be discussed and enhance foresight about them.

Description: The author defines Enterprise-wide risk management as the management of the risks inherent in the basic model used by the enterprise to represent and understand its overall operations. However, the practice of enterprise-wide risk management is a risk in itself.

Description: While COSO describes guiding principles for a comprehensive and robust ERM framework, it is anything but prescriptive. This article describes one path toward the realization of a framework consistent with COSO and highlights several challenges and solutions.

Description: Duration matching is a risk management strategy, commonly used in the insurance industry, where the duration (price sensitivity to a yield curve movement) of an asset portfolio is adjusted to be made equal to the duration of the liability. However, this approach has flaws. In this essay, I note some key failures of duration matching and offer a potential alternative.

Description: Hear AM Best rating analysts discuss the rating process and the best capital adequacy ratio (BCAR), a quantitative foundation for AM Best’s assessment of carriers’ financial strength. The benchmarking of BCAR scores for various company types (national MCOs, BCBS plans, smaller regional plans) will be discussed. Look at how changes in investment and underwriting environment impacted the results over the past several years. Further, AM Best’s view of the quality of capital and various factors impacting the overall assessment of the balance sheet strength will be discussed.

Description: The thrust of this article is that while ERM starts out as a compliance and corporate governance tool, well managed companies use ERM as a strategic tool that will help them increase shareholder value. To do so requires a synthesis of the actuarial techniques of insurance and the capital markets perspectives of corporate finance.

Description: This paper presents an advanced approach to enterprise risk management that, according to the author, significantly improves upon current approaches. The two fundamental elements are a focus on the management of strategic plans and a heavy reliance upon probability theory.