Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session 107PD, from the 2004 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held May 19-21 in Anaheim, CA. Research results from the National Long-Term Care Survey and other surveys of the general elderly population indicate that age-specific morbidity [functional disability] prevalence rates have dropped significantly since 1982. The panelists quantify the nature of the temporal trends in disease morbidity and functional disability, noting that what is really new in this session is looking at the joint impact of changes in disability and mortality. They illustrate the potential impact of these temporal trends on long-term care insurance LTCI pricing and valuation, and provide some guidance as to how this material can be used by LTCI actuaries. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1.

Description: In this session, morbidity and life expectancy trends are discussed. In addition, a case study in R on how to model the uncertainty associated with incidence of disability, disabled and active deaths and other terminations is presented.

Description: This fact sheet provides an overview of the Long-Term Care and Middle Market report.

Description: Table constructed from lifetime long-term care cost studies conducted by P.J. Eric Stallard, ASA, FCA, MAAA, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University.

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: Congress authorized the creation of the RAISE Family Caregiving Advisory Council in 2018. The Council, comprised of family caregivers and experts from a wide variety of stakeholder organizations in both the private and public sector, have been engaged in an in-depth research effort over the last two years to develop recommendations and an implementation plan to address our national caregiving crisis. This article describes their work and the newly released Report to Congress.

Description: Informal caregiving is a major source of long-term care (LTC) and long-term supports and services (LTSS) more broadly. The benefit of informal caregiving is appreciated by those receiving it, and most caregivers find purpose in their work. The costs of caregiving fall on employers, other family members, the health care service sector, stakeholders in the LTSS system, and most importantly the caregivers themselves. Providing support to these caregivers can therefore benefit employers, employees, and their families, as well as the many payors of formal LTSS. Hear from three experts in caregiving who will provide their perspective about how to support information caregivers — operationally and financially — to help them succeed in their purpose. Understand benefits this support can have to the other stakeholders in today’s LTSS system. By attending this session, you will be able to: • Explain the importance of informal caregivers to stakeholders in the LTSS system, including the impact to payors and employers. • Describe the challenges informal caregivers face, and paths to success and avoiding burnout. • Discuss potential future financial solutions that may benefit caregivers, including employee programs and insurance opportunities.

Description: 2021 ImpACT Conference -Session 8B: Combination Product Development and Risk Management 10.27.21 Recording

Description: This session is about supplemental and specialty health products in Japan, the UK, Canada and Australia. It also includes a discussion on health care reform for individual health and long-term care products. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 19, No. 1A.