Description: In our rapidly changing world, it is becoming hopeless to try to arrive at a satisfying description of future conditions, even in the short run. Yet prices for new life insurance must somehow reflect one’s view of events even in the far distant future. futurism

Description: Abstracts of various papers published in ARCH 1983 Vol. 1

Description: The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the method of Lagrange multipliers complete with simple examples. The author suggests that this methodology is ideally suited to the investigation of minimum variance plans. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1987 Vol. 1.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Two-dimensional data can be smoothed by minimizing a combination of the sum of weighted absolute deviations from initial estimates and the sums of absolute values of differences in the two directions. This paper discusses the techniques of parametric programming which make it feasible to explore the different results obtained by varying the emphasis given to fit versus smoothness. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: Abstract for the paper which gives a unified approach to modern credibility models by using the theory of estimating functions.

Description: The objective of this paper is to present and to apply a numerical method in the calculation of the minimal and maximal ultimate ruin probabilities in two risk models given some moment constraints on the individual claimsize distribution. An application of this optimization problem is to find the extremal lower and upper bounds of the ultimate ruin probabilities given those constraints. The paper considers the classical risk models with constant and variable premiums.

Description: This paper compares percentile estimates of a large number of cash flow testing scenarios, where only a very small number fall in the ruin tail, by parametric and non-parametric methods.

Description: Develops a statistical procedure to fit bivariate distributions of claims in presence of covariates, which allows for a more accurate study of insureds' choice and size in the frequency and severity of the two types of claims.