Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?

Description: Article from The Actuary, April 1972 – volume 6 - Issue 4 talks about econometrics, the serious attempts to advance forecasting from an art to a science.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: Consensus of viewpoints from a group discussion on economic forecasting at the March meeting of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

Description: This paper outlines a method of parametric modeling that may be used to produce forecasts and forecast intervals that will convey a measure of the reliance that may be placed on the forecasts. Followed by 2 discussion papers submitted

Description: Presented at April 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the techniques for understanding and analyzing trends in medical care, including: utilization and cost components, analysis of cyclical behavior, use of econometric models, and aggregate trend vs. employer-specific needs.

Description: Describes what a Delphi study is and why actuaries might want to use one.

Description: A summary of how the Forecasting and Futurism Section is networking with other SOA sections and with external organizations to collaborate on various projects. Also highlights new events and projects happening on the forecasting and futurism front.

Description: The author discusses the use of genetic algorithms as they apply to actuaries, specifically the application of characteristics and their potential to solve life insurance asset and liability management problems. He also highlights various ways genetic algorithms can be used to solve a variety of actuarial problems.