Description: Simultaneous modelling of operational risks occurring in different event type/business line cells poses the challenge for operational risk quantification. Invoking the new concept of Levy copulas for dependence modelling yields simple approximations of high quality for multivariate operational VAR. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: Given the lower incidence rate, use of decision tree techniques like Classification and Regression Tree CART in understanding credit or operational risk becomes quite challenging. A commonly adopted solution is biased sampling approach, where more weights are attached to bad customers to artificially hike the incidence or bad rate. While adopting this type of biased sampling approach, question of the best weight arises. This paper adopts an iterative approach in identifying the best weight. The best weight for bankruptcy BKO profiling problem in hand occurred when the incidence rate was around 50 percent where entropy reaches its maximum.

Description: The paper focuses on value creation for European health insurance companies through the practical application of integrated ERM frameworks.

Description: There have been continual advances in the modeling of financial series but most are aimed at the pricing of derivatives. Different criteria are needed for development of scenarios for risk management. Some recent methods will be reviewed with an eye on risk-management applications, including using the simulated method of moments to parameterize multifactor models, fractional differencing and other methods to model series with persistent autocorrelation, and models to flatten out the volatility smile, such as jump-diffusion models. These methods will be illustrated with applications to inflation, interest rates, equity prices and exchange rates.

Description: The author recommends the use of "minimally destructive scenarios" as part of an ORSA process, in order to deal with cognitive bias that can occur in risk decision-making. Part of the essay collection "Risk Metrics for Decision Making and ORSA"

Description: Risk governance is an important part of any risk management process, yet the insurance industry has not implemented the procedures and controls as extensively as banking. This session looks at the elements of risk governance and discusses their importance to the risk management process. Specific emphasis is placed on risk management organizational structures and how different organizational structures may facilitate effective risk management processes. Insurance and banking practices are contrasted. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries 2005, Volume 31, No. 1: 2005 New Orleans Life Spring Meeting, May 22-24, 2005, Session 83 OF.

Description: This paper recommends the practical application of new portfolio risk/return measurements to achieved and back tested stock portfolio performance. This new risk measurement process addresses the issue of infinite variances empirically observed in most stock return distributions. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: In response to the risks of embezzlement and branch mis-behavior, this paper describes an operational risk management framework for local Chinese securities companies and a set of tools to manage their branches. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: In this paper, we formulate the Capital Allocation problem as an optimization problem in which we seek the mix of business that maximizes an insurance company’s Expected Net After Tax Income subject to a constraint on the Tail Value at Risk TVAR. Using the method of Lagrange multipliers, we demonstrate that the returns on the respective TVAR contributions, so-called RORAC, are equal across all lines of business when the mix of business is optimal. Although the discussions in this paper center on the TVAR, the conclusions hold true for any conditional expected value measure. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Hot topics and emerging trends in assumption development in US life insurance companies