Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: This article discusses a good way for insurance companies to calibrate economic capital (tail risk level) that is consistent with the market opinion on its risk. It also establishes a bridge between a risk neutral evaluation and a real world evaluation.

Description: Review of stochastic, modeled geo-spatial risk metrics for insurance loss concentration and clustering and their counter point use for diversification

Description: While Model Efficiency and Model Governance may seem like completely separate topics, there is an intersection of them that should be of growing interest to modeling actuaries. This column from the Modeling Section Chair explores this area, asking how we will govern the increasing use of innovative modeling efficiency techniques.

Description: The five words for ERM are transparency, discipline, alignment, adaptability and resilience. This article focuses on transparency, discipline and resilience.

Description: Hear from the editor’s on the December 2018 issue of Risk Management published by the JRMS.

Description: Other articles that will be of interest to readers.

Description: The article makes reference to how the intervention by government agencies and institutions into the financial marketplace are creating distortions. This artificial tampering into market mechanisms will likely result in major financial dislocations down the road as natural economic forces (coined by the term "invisible hand") eventually are allowed to come into play.

Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: This paper expands upon current capital analysis by introducing a practical approach that considers the objectives of all stakeholders of an insurance company in setting appropriate capital targets. In addition, the paper introduces a technique for estimating capital adequacy that is based on mapping stochastic distributions of regulatory and rating agency capital measures to observable financial rating transition matrices.