Description: Presentation discussing modeling of daily and hourly rainfall, both occurrence and amount. These distributions would be needed to price derivative or insurance contracts involving rainfall amounts.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This paper illustrates a current approach to capital allocation, referred to herein as Tail Contribution Analysis TCA, using it to evaluate the impact of changes in an insurer’s operations by allocating capital to individual lines of business. It then highlights a common problem in the implementation of the procedure arising from reserve volatility and briefly notes the failure of the methodology to account for a firm’s changing levels of risk under various strategies. Finally, it introduces an alternative method for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. We will discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, we will illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: The article summarizes a session on asset validation; the featured speakers were an investment manager, a company investment actuary, and a consultant.

Description: Risk management and capital budgeting are two critical components of the corporate decision process. They often need to be considered jointly at the corporate level because of their natural interaction through the dependent risk exposures and other synergetic relationships within an intricate corporate structure in a dynamic business environment. . This paper develops an integrated framework that aligns these two important corporate strategies across business divisions to optimize the streamlined enterprise strategic goal in a multi-period setting. The proposed integrated framework can serve as a practical guideline for corporate executives to optimally coordinate capital budgeting and risk management at the enterprise level.

Description: This session will serve as a guide on how to implement a factor-based optimization in the Strategic Asset Allocation process. The session will review a factor-based investing approach and cover the top-down macroeconomic drivers of risk and return for various asset classes. We will then illustrate implementation of this investing approach and determination of an optimal Strategic Asset Allocation through a pension fund case study. There will be an interactive element to the session as the factor sensitivities of various portfolios can be examined in real-time.

Description: The article explores the use of economic capital modeling to deliver value to clients by improving the financial security of many individual lives around the world in a cost-effective way.

Description: The winners of the Investment Section's 2016 Asset Allocation Contest are announced, along with a recap of the contest and market performance.

Description: In this session, panelists will lift the curtain on the main features of investment grade (IG) private placement bonds and below investment grade (BIG) private debt and compare them with available public bond and bank loan alternatives. The panel will examine the motivations for insurance companies and pension funds to invest in private debt and the legal, diligence and operational requirements to maintain a private debt portfolio. We will also conduct a 2017 private placement market review and look forward to 2018’s likely new USD and non-USD issuance and which industry sectors are likely to issue. This session will also cover their risk and reward characteristics, and the structural intricacies of the various IG and BIG debt types and whether there is sufficient compensation for illiquidity and other risks.

Description: Summary of Investment Council sponsored meetings as 2015 annual meeting