Description: Evidence is building from the physical sciences that we are starting to reach some of earth’s limits. Unless we can find some technological solutions, once these limits are reached, we can expect to see a very changed world. Instead of having constantly increasing resources available to us, we can expect ever-decreasing resources to be available. Instead of seeing year after year of growth, increasing longevity and improving morbidity, we can expect the opposite.

Description: In this session, we will explore investment solutions that aim to maintain the long-term viability of a pension plan, with considerations on hedging interest rates, credit, inflation, longevity and other risks, while accounting for the many particularities associated with underlying liabilities and their corresponding ramifications.

Description: How assumptions like market returns and variable like saving rate should be incorporated into sound financial planning. How to analyze retirement readiness.

Description: This paper, written following a UK Actuarial meeting, is divided into three parts. Taken together, the three parts intend to provide the reader with an overview of the first 101 years of financial economics, with particular attention on those developments that are of special interest to actuaries.

Description: A research report that examines modeling of cash flow associated within a pool of mortgages and specifically focusing on the effectiveness of infusing a limited amount of capital into the pool.

Description: This paper examines some new Bayesian models for loss reserving inspired by a consideration of some of the methods and techniques appearing in the traditional chain ladder literature. This includes a possibly order restricted hierarchical Bayesian model for the year over year development factors. The issues of reserve variability and ranges of reasonable reserve estimates are considered. A new Bornhuetter-Ferguson styled Bayesian method of estimate revision is also discussed. These Bayesian models can be implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC methods in a variety of programming languages, and can serve as starting points for more advanced models. This paper describes their implementation in WinBUGS a specialized software program for MCMC simulations. Illustrative WinBUGS code is included.

Description: This paper, originally published in 1992 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries Vol. 44, deals with a topic that is becoming increasingly important to actuaries in most fields of practice. “Without relying on formulas, this paper presents the important concepts underlying the theory of arbitrage-free pricing of interest-rate-contingent cash flows.” This paper, by James A. Tilley, won the 1992-93 Annual Prize, and the Halmstad Prize for 1992. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of the discussions.

Description: Presented at May 2005 Spring Meeting. This session examines financial, economic and traditional actuarial methodological approaches used for solving investment-risk problems.

Description: This paper examines the Federal Housing Administration's [FHA] historical termination data on individual single family mortgages. These FHA data can be used to help understand recent past experience as well as to forecast future experience.

Description: This is a discussion of indexed coverages for individual contracts. It covers such topics as the history of indexed coverage in the U.S. and Canada and other countries and the possibilities for the ideal fully-indexed permanent life insurance and disability income plans.