Description: The next evolution of actuarial systems in the U.S. will likely be a move toward a single system solution. This article defines a single system solution and illustrates how models can be shared across actuarial functions, the potential benefits of a single system solution, and describes potential mitigation strategies to address typical actuarial concerns.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper 'A Stochastic Definition of Future Shares'. The traditional definition of actuarial future values and stochastic definition of Ramsay are discussed. A modification of Ramsay's definition is proposed and an application to life insurance reserves is presented.

Description: With the adoption of the C-3 Phase 2 Project of the American Academy of Actuaries, it is now required that stochastic scenarios be developed for establishing reserves for variable annuities. This project has led to the idea of Principle-Based Reserving PBR where many of the same techniques will be used to set life insurance reserves. This article describes the choice of a Random Number Generator RNG to develop the random scenarios.

Description: Using the recent West Africa Ebola outbreak as an example, the authors discuss several modeling approaches that can be useful for estimating pandemic risk.

Description: Quantitative operational risk assessment is essentially based on stochastic scenario modeling of operational loss sequences. Given the lack of reliable historical data in most cases, mathematical methods should meet even stronger requirements in terms of results received and include specific features, namely: rare event analysis, uncertainty analysis and human factor analysis, etc. In this paper, the analytical-statistical simulation approach ASSA is considered as the most flexible approach to stochastic scenario loss sequence modeling and compared with Markov chain, fault/event tree and Monte Carlo, in terms of scenario loss sequence model adequacy and calculation cost. Probabilistic risk analysis software PRAISE and some applications are given. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. In this Teaching Session the instructor discussed the importance of making sure the correct inferences were drawn from stochastic testing exercises. Topics included: 1. Applying the assumption of a normal distribution. 2. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, a population mean. 3. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, tail percentiles. 4. Certifying anticipated mortality under XXX in a mathematically concise way.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. This panel discussion provided an overview of the current risk-based capital RBC requirements for life insurers as well as insight into topical issues and potential changes to RBC. Discussion topics included: 1. Recap of RBC law and RBC calculation rules. 2. Modeling potential impact of alternative actions. 3. The tax impact of the factors. 4. Stochastic capital requirements for variable products. 5. The role of reinsurance and offshore solutions.

Description: A discussion of the possible effort required and impacts resulting from the implementation of C3 Phase II for establishing risk-based capital for variable annuities. This article will describe practical considerations gleaned from actual valuation calculations recently performed by a consulting firm.

Description: This paper develops a new technique, which allows the analyst to maximally use all thte historical interest rate information available in forecasting interest rates. Interest rates' daily change do not follow a stationary random process over long time periods. Instead, the process is comprised of stationary periods, each a few years long, with relatively short transitional periods between different stationary periods.

Description: In December 2007, Goldman Sachs launched a product called QxX index swap, which is designed to allow market participants to hedge or gain exposure to longevity and mortality risks. This presentation offers a quantitative analysis of this brand new financial innovation. First of all, the presentation sets up a risk-neutral framework to price QxX index swaps. This framework, which is based on the dynamics of death rates under a two-factor stochastic mortality model in a risk-adjusted probability measure, yields prices [spreads] that are fairly close to the spreads that Goldman Sachs currently offers. The presentation then explores the uncertainty involved in this model-based pricing framework. Specifically, it studies parameter risk by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo [MCMC] and model risk by examining structural changes in mortality dynamics. The results indicate that both model risk and parameter risk are significant. Actuaries should therefore be aware of these issues when placing a value on a longevity index swap.