Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. Using data from Social Security's Death Master File, this study shows that mortality deceleration in humans observed at advanced ages may be an artifact caused by age exaggeration, data heterogeneity or use of improper estimates of hazard rate. The phenomenon of mortality deceleration at older ages vanishes for datasets of higher data quality.

Description: Abstract: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: Mortality Improvement Scale MP-2016 is an update to Mortality Improvement Scale MP-2015 that includes three additional years of historical U.S. population mortality data and modification of two input values designed to improve the model’s year-over-year financial stability. The page includes the updated Scale MP-2016, the accompanying Scale MP-2016 document, and an updated RPEC_2014_v2016 Model Implementation Tool for actuaries to create their own mortality improvement scales using RPEC’s model and the updated data set.

Description: Observations and commentary on the 2016‐2017 and recent flu seasons with relation to various mortality and morbidity measures available through the CDC.

Description: Overview of areas of the Living to 100 content of particularly interest to pension actuaries. Two areas of emphasis are business implications and human resource implications including retirement ages. Draws on panels and papers.

Description: Provides highlights of the "How Americans Manage their Finances" study and relates results to other SOA research. Researcher for study is at University of Southern California and the SOA is partnering with the Social Security Administration.

Description: Two recent SOA research projects will be discussed. The first covers analysis of the drivers of mortality that shaped trends in US mortality. The second will look at using causes of death to predict future mortality improvements

Description: The most recent demographic data published in Mexico allows us to analyse in detail the profound demographic transition that has been taking place in the country for more than four decades. It is possible to develop forecasts for the future on the basis of this historic experience. The purpose of this article is not only to illustrate the profound demographic change in Mexico – and what it is expected to experience over the coming decades – but to highlight the challenges for the insurance industry posed by the various demographic trends. Wherever challenges are found, however, opportunities also exist, provided the industry succeeds in adequately transforming its own processes and meeting the needs of a changing market.

Description: This article examines the impact of a changing smoking rate on population-level mortality improvement and the importance of taking this driver into account.

Description: This page contains research and research tools related to U.S. population data.