Description: 1994 SOA Meeting, San Francisco. In this session Dr. William Freund, chief economist emeritus of the New York Stock Exchange and former chief economist at the Prudential, shared his perspective on the economic outlook.

Description: This session discusses current trends in retirement decision making, retirement incentives, the impact of conditions in the local and national economy on a person's decision to retire. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 1, Session

Description: Discussion of inflation: Causes and impacts and what the roles of actuaries might be to manage it.

Description: This paper suggests that individual decisions to retire are based on personal resource allocations, institutional influences, and social standards. The paper then attempts to create a decision-making framework in which to accommodate this range of influences. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: The abstract for a paper that focuses on default distributions and why they are important.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: In this presentation, the authors develop a stochastic generator for the generation of scenarios of the S & P 500 index, dividend yield, consumer price index, and U.S. Treasury yields. They first create a set of 'stylized facts' for these series. These in-sample statistical models are themselves not suitable for generation of scenarios for decision making, but instead are additional stylized facts that assist in model development. The 'best' statistical model according to standard statistical model selection criteria can easily lead to a model that is highly unsuitable for generation of scenarios for decision making. The authors develop a stochastic generator that is suitable for decision making under uncertainty. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1997, Vol. 1.

Description: Since spring, with the marked improvement in the payments deficit of the United States, the climate for discussion of reform of the world currency systems has become much more favorable. Perhaps our subject today should more fittingly be entitled Monetary Reform for the World Economy. Discussion focuses on the steps that can be taken to insure that enough liquidity will be provided to finance expanding world trade while maintaining stable price levels, and on how reform measures can be drawn to avoid the danger that additional liquidity will encourage countries to run chronic deficits.

Description: We discussed impacts of procrastination and strategies to harness the power of inertia to aid individuals in their pursuit of future financial well-being.

Description: This paper explores deficiencies in our present health care system, and examines how they hinder the provision of optimal chronic illness care. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.