Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a refresher on regression and times series models so that actuaries will feel more comfortable building forecasting models.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?

Description: Article from The Actuary, April 1972 – volume 6 - Issue 4 talks about econometrics, the serious attempts to advance forecasting from an art to a science.

Description: The article describes the key components of actuarial model, leading practices in designing them, and characteristics of well-built models.

Description: Consensus of viewpoints from a group discussion on economic forecasting at the March meeting of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: A look at the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, and how it differs from both prior financial crises and pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic gives actuaries an opportunity to assess different ways risk may interact, and thereby adjust the profession’s work for the future.

Description: Describes what a Delphi study is and why actuaries might want to use one.

Description: A summary of how the Forecasting and Futurism Section is networking with other SOA sections and with external organizations to collaborate on various projects. Also highlights new events and projects happening on the forecasting and futurism front.