Description: Speaker, a financial-services executive, prognosticates about the future of the financial-services industry. From the 1987 Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 13, No. 4B.

Description: Have you ever wondered why patterns persist in the stock market but never change our expected return? Efficient-market theory has been attacked by many sides, especially due to the existence of irrational investors.

Description: This paper is about a concept known as the 'rate of transmission of information' or, more simply, as the 'information rate.' The authors establish the equivalence of arbitrage-free economic systems and a generalized betting model in such a way that the interpretation of the information rate, as the maximum rate of increase of an investor's capital, is preserved. As a corollary to this result, they show that the difference in the information rate between models represents the achievable incremental return associated with the superior predictor model. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, Vol. 3.

Description: The article discusses the sustainability of the ACA individual market from a public entitlement standpoint. A key point of measuring sustainability is the reliance on market forces rather than federal budget constraints. The article explains why an actuarial viewpoint of sustainability is necessary to a greater extent than other public assistance and social insurance programs. The article challenges actuaries to be a bold, objective voice in a space that is full of opinionated but often uninformed viewpoints.

Description: This session from the 1983 SOA Spring Meeting presents competitive forces in the insurance and pension industries and the outlook for the insurance industry over the next five to ten years. It focuses on deregulation, competition and technological development.

Description: This paper asks the Modligliani-Miller question regarding the mortgage markets. The paper is essentially about the genesis of the credit crisis. The proposed answer is that the practice of risk should not be allowed without actuarial supervision.

Description: Abstract for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “Modigliani, Miller and Mortgages.” This paper is essentially about the genesis of the credit crisis. The proposed answer is that the practice of risk should not be allowed without actuarial supervision.

Description: This paper investigates the interaction between a credit portfolio and another risk type, which can be thought of as market risk. We analytically calculate their inter-risk correlation and show how inter-risk correlation bounds can be derived.

Description: Hybrids of the soft computing SC technologies have been applied to market forecasting and trading rules, and in many cases have demonstrated better performance than competing approaches. The purpose of this research is to investigate a representative group of these applications and to document the manner in which hybrids of the SC technologies were implemented.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.