Description: This article discusses how complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions.

Description: This article highlights 13 attributes shared by various groups of companies that landed in trouble. The companies are identified, and the attributes are described.

Description: Complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions. Use data-driven assumptions, making sure the time series includes stressed environments when possible. If a model of underwriting risk indicates that the probability of accident year combined ratios experienced from 1998 to 2000 is remote, it is not a realistic model

Description: Listing and description of key articles in August 2011 issue of Risk Management. Topics include Predictive Modeling, Risk management and Solvency II.

Description: The editors introduce the articles in this issue of the newsletter.

Description: The editor of the Risk Management newsletter summarizes the articles in this issue which cover Enterprise Risk Management, Systemic Risk and Variable Annuities.

Description: This article describes the financial modelers’ manifesto. Focus is on how difficult it is to model financial instruments when there is a human element involved.

Description: This article focuses on risk mitigation strategies and intends to demonstrate how an organization, a financial institution in this case, realized significant positive impact on its bottom line by integrating risk management in its overall business development strategy.

Description: This article discusses the causes of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the reasons it occurred and the likelihood that it could happen again. In addition, the author discussed ways, in general, to model and manage risks that occur infrequently, yet have a significant impact.

Description: This article recommends actions to key stakeholders to address the systemic risk in the retirement systems as employer and government based pensions reduce, and more emphasis is placed on personal savings.