Description: An introductory article describing how Bayesian statistics has evolved over the past 20 years and why it offers the actuarial discipline powerful tools to better understand and manage risk. Compared with traditional (frequentist) and black-box (machine learning) approaches, Bayesian analysis provides explainable models focused on distributions of estimates instad of simply point estimates.

Description: This article discussed modeling the P&C reinsurance market using an Agent Based Model to provide insights into the market. The characteristics of this marketplace provide credibility to this type of modeling. Specifically, the P&C reinsurance market has few major players, very little product differentiation, and low barriers to entry. In addition established competitors are volume-constrained due to prior business and capacity decisions made based on estimated product costs and prices.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: One of the most fundamental concepts in actuarial practice is the time value of money. For any work in which future cash flows are allowed for, such as reserving or pricing, it is natural to discount to present values so that an appropriate amount of money can be set aside today, allowing for future investment returns. This article discusses yield curve extrapolation methods along with the benefits and drawbacks of these methods.

Description: Competition for space in distribution channels has resulted in a proliferation of exotic options embedded in variable annuity products. This article discusses how this has created a need which can be addressed, in part, by hedging variable annuity guarantees with long-dated equity derivatives.

Description: Current risk management approaches for variable annuity business are not working very well in today's market turmoil.

Description: This article departs from the usual GMWB pricing approach by assuming that the policyholder is always smart enough to act in his/her own best interest.

Description: In this article the author discusses how ERM must be effectively applied to have the desired result. Stated another way, the banks that followed the basic precepts of ERM fared better in the crisis than those that didn't.

Description: This article examines the emphasis that is currently being placed on assessing, monitoring and managing credit concentration risks.

Description: One of the most fundamental concepts in actuarial practice is the time value of money. For any work in which future cash flows are allowed for, such as reserving or pricing, it is natural to discount to present values so that an appropriate amount of money can be set aside today, allowing for future investment returns. This article discusses yield curve extrapolation methods along with the benefits and drawbacks of these methods.