Description: Empirical evidence of reported losses suggests that insurance firms are interconnected in a nontrivial way, making them prone to systemic risk. Systemic risk can be viewed as the result of a cascading process, as it unravels throughout a network structure. In response, this work presents a simple analytical model that can simulate this process. The model is subsequently tested upon an empirical dataset via the means of numerical simulations. This work makes three main contributions. First, it provides a novel methodology for quantitatively and objectively assessing the systemic role of individual firms within the insurance domain. Second, it exemplifies the inability of traditional, firm-based information in serving as proxies for mapping these systemic effects. Third, it provides a practical example where network-based information (e.g., Criticality IDX, Sensitivity IDX) can outperform firm-based information (e.g., admissible assets, excess c apital) resulting in increased efficiency in the decision-making process. These findings strengthen the need to account for the interconnected nature of the domain while showcasing some of the potential benefits that can be harvested by doing so.

Description: Recurrence relations arise naturally in life contingencies for 2 reasons - the aggregate law of mortality, which relates the distribution of the future life times of 2 insureds, if one of them and the other is that most life insurance products can be constructed as a portfolio of 2 basic product types. We use the above simple idea and the extra freedom provided by the fractional age distribution to reveal a structure behind some common recursions. The structure has obvious pedagogical value. More interestingly, a software based on it has been implemented which facilitates actuarial computing.

Description: The values of life insurance and annuity liabilities move in opposite directions in response to a change in the underlying mortality. Natural hedging utilizes this to stabilize aggregate liability cash flows. Our study shows empirical evidence that insurers who utilize natural hedging also charge lower premiums than otherwise similar insurers. This indicates that insurers who are able to utilize natural hedging have a competitive advantage. In addition, we show how a mortality swap might be used to provide the benefits of natural hedging to a firm that writes only one of the lines of business.

Description: All claim reserve systems endeavor to derive estimates of the unpaid portion of claims which have been incurred over a given period of time, making use of information on numbers of claims and amounts paid on claims as of the valuation date. In this paper, a claim reserve system is described. While the system does produce the traditional type of single-point estimates of claim reserves, it also provides the user with frequency distributions of claim reserves

Description: This paper, originally published in 1969 in Transactions of Society of Actuaries Vol. 21, presents an analysis of the basic actuarial theory for life insurance policies with fixed premiums and variable benefits reflecting the investment performance of a separate account, where in its basic form, the policyholder bears the entire investment risk. The paper discusses various regulatory and other changes that would be needed or desirable, as well as variation in design such as minimum guarantees. Significant discussion is included, with over twenty individuals contributing in addition to the authors. The introduction to the Monograph notes that while not the first paper on this topic, it “clearly established the framework for subsequent developments of variable products.”

Description: In this paper we study the pricing of financial options and contingent claims. We show that two time-honored concepts in actuarial science - the Esscher transform and the adjustment coefficient - are efficient tools for pricing many options and derivative securities if the logarithms of the prices of the primitive securities are certain stochastic processes with stationary and independent increments. We also study the pricing of American options on two stocks without expiration date and with payoff functions which are homogeneous with respect to the two stock prices.

Description: This work describes a study undertaken to determine whether the Federal Housing Administration FHA should modify or discontinue its single-family home mortgage insurance program for investor i.e., non-occupant loans.

Description: This paper discusses the level of reserve funds that a pension plan should maintain to protect itself from a downturn in the financial markets. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper establishes a framework to analyze the volatility of corporate profits as a result of variability in accounting for pension plans. It models a Canadian corporation that maintains a defined-benefit pension plan and that has adequate cash flow to fully fund the pension plan, should it wish. Volatility of corporate profits is important because many senior executives have some component of their compensation directly related to corporate profitability and consequently do not want any surprises with respect to actual profits compared to expected profits. The volatility management techniques considered are investment policies for the pension plan, funding the pension plan, and an alternative plan design. The analysis is timely since changes are proposed to the accounting standards to eliminate most smoothing techniques. The results suggest that, depending on the investment environment, reduced volatility may be accompanied by by enhanced return, which is a result that few would expect.

Description: In Volume LXXV of the Proceedings there appeared a paper entitled Risk Loads for Insurers by Feldblum. Confidence intervals for the betas in TABLE 4 [Profit Margins and Their Standard Deviations by Line of Business] of this paper can be generated using the assumption of underlying normal distributions. However, bootstrapping operational or not for interval estimates does not require the normality assumption. The method of operational bootstrapping does not use random numbers. The method for the 4-dimensional case, used to generate the interval estimates in the current paper, is a natural generalization of the bivariate case. I use operational bootstrapping to generate interval estimates for Betas shown in the TABLE 5.