Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 6A: Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: This report covers the mortality experience observed between 1948 and 1949 policy anniversaries. In addition, two new basic mortality tables derived from the combined experience of the contributing companies between 1946 and 1949 policy anniversaries are presented.

Description: Recent trends in mortality suggest that future gains in life expectancy will occur after age 80. This fact stresses the need and the importance to obtain precise measures of mortality at the highest ages, which are always subject to uncertainty due to misreporting of age at death.

Description: This article examines the impact of a changing smoking rate on population-level mortality improvement and the importance of taking this driver into account.

Description: Discussion of Session 5B: Papers presented: Data Validation and Measurement of Cohort Mortality among Centenarians in Quebec and Physical and Socioeconomic Characteristics at a Young Age as Predictors of Survival

Description: Discussion of how to measure actual to expected mortality experience in the life settlement market.

Description: Series of letters discussing the controversial Gershenson formula for calculating exposures for mortality tables at the end of the observation period.

Description: Mortality Credibility and its use within VM-20.