Description: Letters to the national association of insurance commissioners life/health actuarial task force regarding the development of the new annuity non-forfeiture law. Letters are addressed to Mr. Howard Kayton, Mr. Allan Roby, and Mr. John Montgomery. Also included is a demonstration of the workings of a two tiered annuity.

Description: In this paper several probability models for the random amounts of needed long-term care are explained, and one model is used to provide an alternate premium calculation method for certain long-term care coverages. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to present a parsimonious parametric model that explains the pattern of mortality for select and ultimate mortality tables. Specifically, the author modeled the combined rates found in the 1965-70 ALB Basic Tables. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: In this paper the author discusses the use of splines in graduation and offers a possible improvement of the graduation methods used for the English Life Tables. He offers some illustrations of his ideas. From ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE 1980, VOL. 2.

Description: This paper on the duality between uniform deaths and Balducci assumptions was motivated by earlier referenced works in which exposure formulas based upon the assumption of the uniform distribution of deaths were analysed. From ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE, 1980 VOL. 2.

Description: This paper presents a proof using the general mean value theorem that under specified conditions, the insurance premium for complete protection against a specified loss will decrease with increasing wealth. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 1.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.

Description: In this paper population mortality rates are used to explore the question of whether a biologically determined maximum age actually exists for the human species. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: Most computations that are done within actuarial science entail using discrete death rates associated with incremental ages. It's not that continuous death rates cannot be used, it's just that discrete values tend to be more convenient to work with. Of the various continuous probability distributions, the one most closely associated with actuarial science may be the Gompertz distribution. This paper takes a closer look at the Gompertz, starting with the motivation behind Benjamin Gompertz proposing this particular distribution. Then the paper develops procedures to estimate the parameters for this distribution, and it ends with a brief example of the procedures presented in the paper.

Description: This research paper presents a method for smoothing mortality rates using multi-dimensional Whittaker-Henderson Graduation. The paper answers the question: For a given level of fit, how are the smoothness parameters to be chosen so that the graduated rates form, in some natural sense, the smoothest discrete surface?