Description: This paper attempts a model for a mix of DB and DC retirement plans that meets the dual objectives of predictability of employer cash contributions, and sufficient employee retirement benefit. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: Fraud is often a dynamic and challenging problem in credit card lending business. Supervised modeling/segmentation techniques are commonly used in fraud detection to distinguish risky transactions from non-risky transactions. However, these techniques frequently rely on identifying risky behavior at a global level. In this paper, along with the classical approach, a new technique has been studied to improve the behavioral fraud detection capability. The application of this proposed technique enables us to identify risky behavior at the account level.

Description: The intent of this paper is the analysis of the influence of risk that took place during winter and summer 2006 on economic results of utilities selling power to final customers. Efficient risk management requires the restructuring of the approach to company management. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: In this paper, we study a survival regression model known as Cox's proportional Hazards model. We assume that the data available are already grouped and develop a minimum distance estimation procedure that is also applicable when the data are also left or right censored. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established and the numerical implementation of the method based on an iterated reweighted least squares algorithm is discussed.

Description: A European call option pricing model similar to the Black-Scholes equation [1] is derived. Like the Black-Scholes equation, the model is based upon an assumption of a lognormal distribution of the price of a risky, non-dividend-paying security at a given point in the future. However, unlike Black-Scholes, the market's risk preference is recognized through a parameter that permits refinement of the model to agree either with experience or with future advances in the underlying theory.

Description: This paper discusses a general model for calculating life contingencies including formulation of the model and net reserves and contingency reserves.

Description: The main objective of this study is to analyze and control a surplus dependent risk process, where larger surpluses allow for a wider underwriting policy. We focus here mostly on the diffusion approximation of the risk process. The results are derived in two papers Brownian motion in Risk Theory, submitted for publication, and Surplus dependent risk processes defined by stochastic differential equations, in preparation. We only include here a long summary of these papers.

Description: This paper takes the position that it is possible to compute annual pension costs without computing liabilities first, or at all, even implicitly. Moreover, such an approach can be shown to have powerful advantages in stochastic financial environments. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: Random sum models with compound distributions are used extensively in modeling of insurance risks. Unfortunately, the compound distributions themselves are awkward to evaluate. Consequently, various numerical and analytical approximative techniques have been used. In this talk we derive various upper and lower bounds on the tails of compound distributions. Some notions in reliability theory are used.

Description: In this Chapter we present a novel way for estimating aggregated EC figures based on Bayesian copula estimation. Contrary to the classic approach of using a single inter-risk- correlation matrix we derive a probability distribution of possible correlation matrices that enables us to tackle the important issue of parameter uncertainty. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.