Description: In this discussion, Peter Bishop provides an update of the topics and conclusions of the July meeting of the World Future Society and expands upon the issues most relevant to actuaries, including the status of current futurism research and the significance of emerging knowledge. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 30, No. 3.

Description: An increasing need exists for the actuary to provide ranges and frequency distributions of possible values instead of providing only mean values. This discussion will cover: projections of asset experience under various economic scenarios, a practical application of profit analysis using scenarios and a deterministic model, exploring possible values by means of stochastic modeling, and a description of the new life contingencies textbook's stochastic approach and application to some practical population and census problems. From Record of the Society of Actuaries 1981, Volume 7, No. 4.

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this teaching session on liability modeling, the panelists discussed the key aspects of identifying and gathering the data required to construct models, the model building process including objectives and considerations, and the modeling process from the standpoint of policyholder and company behaviors.

Description: Ever wanted to do a Kaggle data science competition, but didn't know where to start? This presentation meets the needs of actuaries interested in predictive analytics and competitive data science. The presentation will describe the nature of competitive data science, and provide insights into lessons learned by competing in the Airbus Ship Detection Challenge at Kaggle, as well as other Kaggle competitions. The presenters will provide an introduction to neural networks and describe the nature of the Airbus Ship Detection Challenge and other Kaggle competitions, plus a solution approaches that can be used to obtain top scores using Convolutional Neural networks (CNNs), random forests and boosted trees.

Description: As the Valuation Manual continues to evolve and PBR standards for additional products are drafted and incorporated, it will become increasingly important for companies to understand where the requirements are consistent across products, as well as how they differ. This session will scan the life (VM-20) and annuity (VM-21, VM-22) PBR standards across the Valuation Manual to compare and contrast key requirements. Attendees will understand where common methods and techniques can be used across products and platforms. Attendees will also be better positioned to consider assumption and margin setting, asset and derivative modeling, and model efficiency techniques for all types of principles-based valuations. Additionally, this session will profile specific challenges that can arise when actuaries use models to project PBR reserves at future dates for internal planning, pricing, and projections across life and annuity businesses.

Description: In this session 35TS of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, the instructor provides simple tools and guidelines to better ensure that correct conclusions are drawn. This material is presented without the use of complex mathematical formulas. Topics include appropriateness of the assumption of normality including discussion of the distribution of a conditional tail expectation, drawing inferences about population means and tail percentiles, and uses and pitfalls of linear regression analysis.

Description: This session discussion is about application of actuarial analysis and models to evaluate investment features. From Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 15, No. 1.

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Actuarial models must both accurately portray the assets and liabilities in question and produce relevant and meaningful projection results. The panel discusses important considerations in: • Proper organization of a model • Structuring of a model for an intended purpose i.e., pricing versus financial reporting, statutory versus GAAP accounting • Static and dynamic model validation techniques • Data integrity

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. In this Teaching Session the instructor discussed the importance of making sure the correct inferences were drawn from stochastic testing exercises. Topics included: 1. Applying the assumption of a normal distribution. 2. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, a population mean. 3. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, tail percentiles. 4. Certifying anticipated mortality under XXX in a mathematically concise way.

Description: This presentation develops an integrated approach that addresses simultaneously guaranteed annuity option (GAO)’s pricing and capital requirement calculation.