Description: In 1993, the Chicago Board of Trade introduced a futures contract on a financial index that reflects the insurance claims emerging from catastrophes in a portfolio of policies. This article presents a valuation formula for the contract, under the assumption that catastrophes emerge as a Poisson process over time and that the claims from each catastrophe emerge as a Compound Poisson process. The formula is developed by taking conditional expectations with respect to a history of information that includes knowledge about the time of the catastrophes.

Description: This paper deals with how the credibility levels change based on this lack knowledge. Group insuraace models are used, bill some of tile techniques could apply to any insurance risk.

Description: This dialogue discusses the history and purpose of section 811(a) and its historic role in the computation of life insurance company taxable income and, in particular, reserves.

Description: This article describes how there are many kinds of plans and arrangements under which qualified annuities are issued, and the rules governing them differ considerably.

Description: From the Editor: This issue of Long-Term Care News attempts to address how LTC insurers manage investment risk and morbidity misestimation risks.

Description: A discussion of the possible effort required and impacts resulting from the implementation of C3 Phase II for establishing risk-based capital for variable annuities. This article will describe practical considerations gleaned from actual valuation calculations recently performed by a consulting firm.

Description: A discussion of alternative meanings to “Best” in best estimate. When one is trying to estimate a result that is normally distributed, the mean, median and mode will all equal one another. However if the results are not normally distributed, different variance metrics will result in different “best” estimates. When different parts of a financial statement use different criteria for measuring best estimates and different processes for handling variances, the results can be volatile, unpredictable and perhaps unreasonable.

Description: Provides a technique for carrying out investment performance attribution reporting which provides stable, consistent results without residuals. Provides simple examples and a mathematical defense of the method. Illustrates implementation using numerical integration. Provides guidance to limit application of the technique when there are discontinuities in the underlying exposure.

Description: The impact of Fed’s QE program on the financial markets has been enormous and profound. The tapering and the eventual removal of the stimulus will be equally enormous and profound, and may be disruptive. To adapt to the potential regime change in near future, some investment strategies have been proposed: (1) shorten duration to focus on the short end of the yield curve and create laddered portfolios; (2) reduce allocation to high yield bonds; (3) rotate out interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities; and (4) use interest rate derivatives to hedge the interest rate uncertainties lying ahead. On the other hand, contrarians who see the QE program continuing may stay the course and consider (1) adding duration, (2) gaining exposure to high yield bonds, and (3) increasing allocation to utilities and telecoms.

Description: Discusses bond-default history in the United States, implications for insurance-company asset determination, regulatory concerns about recent investing by insurance companies in low-grade bonds, valuation-actuary needs to consider in these cases, and another suggested method for modeling the C-1 Risk in the context of the valuation actuary's cash flow review. From the 1987 Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 13, No. 3.