Description: Feature article discussing numerical short cuts, rules of thumb, estimators, modeling tips, etc. The featured problem is fitting the intermediate points for a real-world stochastic model of interest rates.

Description: The Risk Management Task Force polled the Risks & Rewards readers and asked the following questions related to Monte Carlo models: 1 How many scenarios do you run? 2 How did you determine the number? and 3 What confidence interval does your result have? The results are summarized in this article.

Description: This is the first year for appointed actuaries in the United States ot review X factors and evaluate actual morality experience that is emerging. This article atempts to provide a simpified explanation of how Monte Carlo simulation can be used by a small company to evaluate its mortality experience.

Description: A study on stochastic simulation literature as it applies to a health actuary.

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: This article discusses the need for more coordination and consistency in assumption setting between the pricing actuary, illustration actuary, appointed actuary, and financial reporting actuary.

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author discusses the advantages to management of preparing estimates of annual earnings early in the year, for planning and budgeting, deciding on changes to dividend scales, estimating earnings from interest, mortality, and expenses against expected, etc. The author lays out his method of forecasting based on gains and losses by source of earnings, using readily available data including various annual statement exhibits. The author notes that judgment is important as well as statistical analysis in making reasonable forecasts.

Description: A description of the random generalized linear model (RGLM) and how to use it.

Description: A discussion of the theory underlying risk neutral investment scenarios

Description: Target volatility, as an investment strategy, has been used by many funds not only as a way to smooth return but also as a way to manage risks of the VA guarantees. Contrary to existing research which favors volatility targeting over fixed allocation, this article shows that because of the existence of market jump risk, target volatility strategy does not necessarily offer an improved risk profile for VA writers. Further, target volatility coupled with leveraging can significantly increase tail risk for insurance companies.