Description: This work investigates the use of a statistical approach to calculate the incurred but not reported IBNR reserve directly. This allows for the reserve to be estimated in one step, without completion factors, and it provides a confidence interval around the estimate of IBNR as well.

Description: The behavior of extreme paths in the usual stochastic interest rate models is not nearly so plausible as the behavior of their expected values and variances. This paper proposes a new class of models that deliver more plausible extreme paths while preserving the usual expected value and variance behavior. Along the way we derive the closed form solution for the traditional mean-reverting lognormal process, including the drift compensation.

Description: Commentary on practical observations resulting from constructing and running Economic Capital models. Possible standardization of assumptions and result interpretation are morphing even though use of E.C. models has now been around for years.

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).

Description: An interview with Prof. Johnny Li of University of Waterloo, which touches upon the subjects of longevity, mortality projections, international collaboration and the Living to 100 Symposium. Longevity is a topic in which scientific research and collaboration successfully spans many countries, which is desirable because the implications of ever increasing life spans is of global importance.

Description: This panel discussion considers some of the approaches, techniques and problems in the development of corporate models and assumptions. The pros and cons of buying versus developing models was discussed and the use of deterministic versus stochastic models was addressed as well.

Description: In it’s insurance capital model, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has established criteria to adopt the NAIC’s stochastic approach to variable annuity risk. This approach, which replaces existing static charges, better reflects the products’ risk.

Description: Feature article discussing the use of stochastic volatility models in the pricing of investments and options.

Description: Feature article describing the latest developments with the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board.