Description: Discussion on Living to 100 Session 4A. Papers presented: Inference for Logistic-type models for the Force of Mortality and, Predictive Modeling for Advanced Age Mortality

Description: Discussion of “Health Expectancy” paper and reply from author, Faye Albert. Discussion of Human Behavior: An Impediment to Future Mortality and Discussion of Health, Wealth and Wisdom - Living Long, Living Well: An Actuary Muses on Longevity

Description: This is the informal discussion transcript for Session 4A: Longevity in the Public Eye from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: These are the discussant comments for the concurrent Session 2B: Older-Age Mortality Trends from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: Recurrence relations arise naturally in life contingencies for 2 reasons - the aggregate law of mortality, which relates the distribution of the future life times of 2 insureds, if one of them and the other is that most life insurance products can be constructed as a portfolio of 2 basic product types. We use the above simple idea and the extra freedom provided by the fractional age distribution to reveal a structure behind some common recursions. The structure has obvious pedagogical value. More interestingly, a software based on it has been implemented which facilitates actuarial computing.

Description: This paper discusses a general model for calculating life contingencies including formulation of the model and net reserves and contingency reserves.

Description: These are the discussant comments for the concurrent session 3B: Comparing Mortality of Different Groups from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium.

Description: This paper introduces the predictive modeling tools to mortality research. The predictive modeling is applied to study how multiple risk drivers such as demographic characteristics and social and economic status impact the mortality improvement of the advanced age population. The paper provides both the theoretical frameworks and the application aspects of the predictive modeling process. As the result, a mortality risk score was derived in differentiating the mortality risk for the advanced age population.

Description: Discussion of Living to 100 Session 5A. The papers presented propose a new method to price the longevity risk premia in order to tackle the pricing obstacle and reviewed the insurance industry implications on retirement planning and the secondary market in insurance.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.