Description: The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of a new approximation to determine contingency reserves against adverse mortality experience for a portfolio of life annuity contracts.

Description: This discussion at an SOA 1968 Regional Meeting is about corporate planning and the actuary's role in the process.

Description: A simplified model adapts very easily to simulation by a computer, and this is what the author has done with several selected pairs of probability distributions in order to calculate the probability of a casualty company's being ruined shortly after its establishment. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, Pt. 1, No. 61.

Description: This paper explains a method of computation for the probability of survival which may often be more expeditious than the methods in common use, particularly when the number of lives is large. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1959, Vol. 11, No. 29 AB.

Description: This paper examines the compatibility of the two models, in the hope that this exploration will prompt a greater cross-fertilization of ideas between the life actuarial branch which favors Bayesian models and the casualty branch which favors Hans Buhlmann models.

Description: This paper addresses the need for obtaining further information about the differences in life insurance persistency or lapsation among companies during the first fifteen years from issue. It also introduces the statistical technique of cluster analysis From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: This work describes a study undertaken to determine whether the Federal Housing Administration's 'FHA' single-family-home mortgage insurance program for investor 'non-occupant' loans should be modified. The sample data were analyzed using both Bayesian and sample reuse procedures. A commentary on the paper is included.

Description: This paper explores the flexibility of kernel estimation as a means of nonparametric graduation and relates it to moving-weighted-average graduation. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: This paper identifies several implicit assumptions underlying the use of the lognormal distribution for modeling the periodic change in the interest rate of a given maturity, tests those assumptions against historical interest rates, and presents additional information from those tests. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: Without relying on formulas, this paper presents the important concepts underlying the theory of arbitrage-free pricing of interest-rate-contingent cash flows: absence of opportunities for riskless arbitrage, completeness of markets, relative prices that do not depend on individual investors' subjective views or risk preferences, and expected-value pricing in the risk-neutral world. Using these concepts, the paper then describes the steps required to build continuous stochastic models of interest rates, including models that are either partially or fully arbitrage free.