Description: A panel of actuaries and clinical consultants at this session of the SOA 2003 Vancouver Spring Meeting provides an assessment of current and future applications of predictive modeling techniques in the health arena. A practical example of risk adjustment, discussion of the clinical use of this technique, and applications in underwriting are discussed.

Description: This paper provides a method for estimating long-tailed unpaid losses from paid loss development using trended generalized bondy development. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper summarizes the salient techniques for evaluating and pricing the risks in group disability income coverages. This paper contains examples of how to evaluate short-term and long-term disability experience for developing manual rates. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1990, Vol. 42.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. This paper presents a long term healthcare trends resource model, prepared for the Society of Actuaries by Professor Thomas Getzen, that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements.

Description: The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xlsx format], projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using a set of equations and assumptions developed by Professor Getzen with assistance from the Society of Actuaries Project Oversight Group appointed to oversee the effort. The model includes baseline assumptions as well as flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions.

Description: This general discussion looks at mortality experience with the advent of CSO tables, annuity premium tax, termination dividends, classes of agents included under Social Security, and conditions affecting companies entering the fields of disability income, accident, health, hospitalization and medical insurance.

Description: This paper presents the commutation functions and net premiums required for reserve calculations with specimen reserve tables. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1959, Vol. 11, No. 30 AB.

Description: Tree models have been found to provide a good fit to group long term disability recovery and mortality rates. This research paper provides an overview of tree models, and details how they have been used for developing these rates.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper first explores the current state and contributing causes of obesity. It then explores the mortality and health care costs of obesity. It ends with a discussion of its management.

Description: CD Paper Exhibits - Exhibit #3 by SOA from NewsDirect Newsletter, Spring 2000, Issue No. 34, Special Supplement.