Description: A closer look at family tier factor rating assumptions, and how well they reflect actual claim cost data.

Description: Looks at free and inexpensive resources for the novice in predictive analytics, covering the data analysis theory as well as the most commonly used languages/software used in the field.

Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: From a session at the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, September 19–20, 2002 Session topics included model hierarchy, statistical deterministic and stochastic models, real-life situations, how to organize a model effectively, structuring the model to fit the project or report data, sources/integrity techniques documentation, and constraints and limitations on models.

Description: A study of disability experience examines cost burden and degree of disability, and how these measures vary across different subpopulations.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: In any model, assumptions are necessary to generate output. Typically, the model is run with varying assumptions to determine how sensitive the output is to the input. But what if the philosophy of generating assumptions is flawed?

Description: Provides a metric based on the concept of "entropy" from information theory/signal processing, for modifying a stochastic scenario set to meet pre-defined targets on average across the set. Explains the concept and develops it in simple examples. Illustrates why an optimal adjustment to the scenario set is one that maximizes entropy. Provides guidelines to limit use of the technique appropriately and avoid invalid application of the tool.

Description: This article deals with enterprise risk management and how the techniques contained within the discipline can help prevent unforeseen large mistakes in strategy, product design, and product management

Description: We highlight a new approach leveraging predictive analytics to identify high risk and rising risk opioid users for more effective screening and follow-up care.