Description: This Fellowship credit research paper describes the use of fuzzy sets applications to the selection of group health risks. In general, fuzzy set theory is implemented to describe collections of objects whose boundaries are not precisely defined, as in the judgment of what constitutes a good risk group. First, single-plan underwriting is considered, then the work is extended to multiple-option plans.

Description: This section presents book reviews and summarizations of recent publications: 'Regulation of Blue Cross and Blue Shield Plans' by Eilers, 'Changes in Family Medical Care Expenditures and Voluntary Health Insurance' by Anderson, Collette, and Feldman, 'Risk Management' by Snider, 'Smoking and Health: Report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service' by Public Health Service. Digests are also included.

Description: The Health Section Council HSC of the Society of Actuaries approved and funded a project to study the cost impact on plan sponsor retiree pharmacy costs when Medicare Part D is implemented in 2006. Actuarial & Health Care Solutions, LLC AHCS was retained by HSC to perform the project. This report provides estimated savings for several of the options that will be available to plan sponsors after implementation of the Medicare prescription drug program.

Description: This report contains historical U.S. population crude mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2015.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: This section presents book reviews and summaries of recent publications: 'Fundamentals of Private Pensions, 2d Edition' by McGill, 'Pension Plans under Collective Bargaining...' by American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, 'New Trends in Pensions' by Pilch and Wood, 'Valuation of Securities Holdings of Life Insurance Companies' by Fraine, 'Report of the Commission on the Cost of Medical Care, Volumes I-IV' by American Medical Association, 'Health Progress in the US, 1900-1960' by Lerner and Anderson. Also includes some digests.

Description: This document provides an explanation of the Health Company Pandemic Modeling tool excel workbook and gives step by step instructions for companies to enter specific scenarios and assumptions.

Description: This paper is about an Interacting Particle System [IPS] approach to modeling treatment costs associated with a multiple stage pandemic. The model population receives differing treatments with possibly differing costs depending on the stage of exposure/infection. The total cost of treatment is a time varying utility function of the ensemble population for which this approach uses particle system methods to simulate the cost of maintaining survival of the population. The paper gives a brief background on particle systems with specific focus on 'the contact process', followed by expanding the contact process to represent more realistic state transitions.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. This paper presents a long term healthcare trends resource model, prepared for the Society of Actuaries by Professor Thomas Getzen, that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements.

Description: The Health Section Research Team is pleased to make available the following research study and Excel model that provide a framework for estimating the financial impact of health plan provider network risk. The research was conducted by the Denver office of Milliman, Inc. The Excel workbook allows the user to assess cost implications of aspects of network risk under various assumptions. The assumptions in the workbook can be altered by the user and be applied to test a range of scenarios.