Description: A general introduction about predictive modeling in insurance applications. Some basic models are discussed, such as Generalized Linear Model(GLM), Calssification and Regression Tree Model. Other models are also briefly introduced, including data clustering, neural networks and support vector machine.

Description: On October 30, 2006, the UK government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change made startling claims about the present value today of climate change effects predicted to emerge primarily 150 years or more in the future. The ensuing debate included challenges to and defenses of the particular methodology used and parameter values selected to perform the discounting of future values. Noticing an overlooked faux pas in the Stern Review, this presentation uncovers the likely motivation for choosing the most mystifying of the parameters values, and provides a lesson on the underpinnings of the basic tool of actuarial science.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. This session presents a forecasting model of economic assumptions that are inputs to projections of the Social Security system. Social Security projections are made to help policymakers understand the financial stability of the system.

Description: Presented at June 1985 Spring Meeting. Futures research is a demonstrated scientific approach to understanding what the future environment will be. Presentation discusses what it is, where did it start, who uses it and why, does it work, who benefits, what are some simple futures research techniques, how to make it work, what are today's key trends for tomorrow's insurance industry, and how to start a simple futures research program.

Description: The article gives a brief history of the development of the Delphi method, and describes the use of the Delphi method in studies by the Society of Actuaries over the past 25 years.

Description: Even the best algorithms are only effective if they are trained on appropriate data. This article discusses common pitfalls in creating a training data set.

Description: Given the limits of classical actuarial modeling and forecasting techniques, this newsletter contains articles discussing several ways to supplement your toolset.

Description: Book review of: Social Science from the Bottom Up, by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell

Description: In this article, the author examines Nassim Taleb’s work and writings and discusses its relevance to the future of the actuarial profession.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the considerations and advantages of implementing an integrated enterprise risk management program for a health insurance company, and presents a summary of Aetna's experience with ERM as a case study.