Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: Article from The Actuary, October 1985 – Volume No. 19, Issue No. 8 that talks about the Rule of 72.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper Minimum Quadratic Distance Estimators for the Zeta Parametric Family. In this paper, we propose a new estimator, based on quadratic distance, asymptotically fully efficient for parameter values greater than 2 and highly efficient for smaller values, but computationally more appealing than the maximum likelihood estimator we compare its asymptotic variance with that of the moment estimator and an estimator proposed by Seal, based on the ratio of the observed frequencies of the first two classes. We also discuss a goodness-of-fit test and a test to discriminate between the zeta distribution and the Poisson distribution truncated at 0.

Description: Feature article about the use of approximations.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: This paper presents a random selection method with the Monte Carlo simulation technique in the estimation of loss reserves. The future loss development factors are randomly selected from a weighted empirical distribution of observed loss development factors. This nonparametric approach provides an estimate of the distribution of total loss reserve.

Description: This presentation suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the inter rate generator used.

Description: In this paper, methods are presented that allow the systematic graduation of multidimensional data subject to linear constraints. With these constraints the practitioner can impose limitations on the graduation that agree with prior knowledge. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: European insurance regulation pretends to capture and rely on the 1-year 1-in-200 VaR. But there cannot exist any scientific calibration of such measure. Why?

Description: This note describes a mortality investigation procedure in which the expected mortality applicable to each new policy for a period of about three years after issue is estimated by use of persistency factors. Discussions of this paper are included.