Description: The most recent U.S. population data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the U.S. Census at year-end 2021 includes the first ten months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. While we know the pandemic has had significant impacts on both the U.S. population and insured population mortality, we also see increased mortality due to many other non-COVID causes of death. Where are the biggest changes and what does this non-COVID excess mortality mean over the next few years? Take part as an expert panel hosts an interactive discussion to examine data from general population as well as from both individual life and group life experience studies to explore how these changes might spur innovation in underwriting, assumption setting and pricing.

Description: Reunite with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, IFRS 17, product strategy, cross-border communication and discussion, and more. Advance your career through learning and networking opportunities, and share your experiences in the finance and insurance industries, as well as other fields related to actuarial science.

Description: Discusses the influences that foreign economies have on the U.S. economy and the risks that those influences create for the U.S. life insurance industry.

Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: The 2024 Dangerous Risks survey shows respondents react to recent increases in "old favorite" risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic.

Description: This article is part of a 2 part series on real options analysis (ROA). Before you can understand the limitations of ROA, you must first understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This article goes into detail explaining the vast differences between the two phenomena.

Description: There will be inflection points in the value of an instrument when interest rates change. These inflection points could materially impact the approximation of value change using ALM metrics. In this part of the seven-part series, I will highlight: • How to identify the inflection points; • the range of rate changes where ALM metrics may be relied upon i.e., the “validity” range, outside of which recalculation of the ALM metrics is required and the potential that one needs to rebalance the portfolio; • a technique to improve on the approximation of value change beyond the validity range; and • a technique to convert non-linear change on the yield curve to be used with duration and convexity.

Description: In this Determining Appropriate Sensitivity Tests webcast, explore sensitivity testing effectiveness, the important difference between sensitivity and stress testing and more. Understanding sensitivity testing is critical to actuarial work, especially in order to properly assess and evaluate risk factors. Come explore approached to sensitivity tests and effective evaluations of sensitivity test results in order to elevate your knowledge within the actuarial science field.

Description: The SOA is interested in understanding how companies are performing scenario analysis, thinking through how various stakeholders (regulators, general public, competitors) could be reacting to a large-scale large-impact event over a multi-year period.

Description: Actuaries are increasingly being asked to incorporate Economic Scenario Generators into their work. Whether it be a Risk Neutral model for pricing or a Real-World version for Economic Capital modelling, using these tools can help produce a much more robust analysis. Unfortunately, these models and their underpinnings are also very complicated, which can lead to confusion. The presenters in this session will try to demystify some of this. In particular, they will address the following questions: • What is the difference between Real-World and Risk Neutral scenarios? • When should I use one or the other? • How are these models calibrated? • What are some of the misconceptions about these models?