Description: Review of a report by Alan Mills introducing Complexity Science, a discipline which could help actuaries to model and manage complex systems, such as the health care system.

Description: This tool created graphs of Google's mobility Data. This version of the tool contains global, country-level data through July 31, 2020

Description: This abstract describes a paper that proposes a multi-population Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) mortality model, in which the joint mortality dynamics of all populations are formulated in a large vector autoregression model with a set of contemporaneous global mortality factors.

Description: Article Permutations And Computations by Moordhead in The Actuary, February 1979, Volume 13, Number 2

Description: Market consistent valuations require path-dependent discounting for scenarios. IFRS 17's requirement to discount best-estimate cashflows using locked-in rates could give non-sensical results in many instances. This article describes a technique for calibrating each of the scenario's cashflows so that they can be discounted with other discount factors or curves without distorting the value of underlying options and guarantees.

Description: This paper expands the calculation of a group's credibility factor from a traditional univariate one-dimensional single layer model to: 1. a univariate one dimensional two layer model, 2. a multivariate one dimensional single layer model, and 3. a univariate two dimensional single layer models.

Description: This is a presentation of recursive APL programs for Steffenson's and Romberg's algorithms. The programs call themselves repeatedly until terminating conditions are reached. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1987 Vol. 1.

Description: This paper introduces the alternative notion of 'corresponding conditional single-decrement models.' These models: 1. do have both an intuitive and a precise probabilistic meaning, 2. do behave as do standard single-decrement models, 3. can easily be used to construct the full multiple-decrement model without any special assumption. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993 VOL. 1.

Description: Discussion of methods to estimate unpaid claim liability UCL for health plans. Includes traditional IBNR lag method and a lag method based on claims reported but not paid RBNP. Issue No. 45

Description: Article describes how to write effective model documentation