Description: The paper argues that Risks Evaluation at its core is a psychological process that can lead to the special type of chaos described in modern Chaos Theory. It will argue that quantification and scientific modeling does not exempt risk assessment from the potential for deep biases. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Full version of Actuary of the Future newsletter, Issue No. 23, November 2007.

Description: This is a paper from the session on Climate Change Effects at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This paper presents an algorithm for valuing American options in a path simulation model. It demonstrates the accuracy by an example involving a put option on a non-dividend-paying stock for which the exact premium could be determined. It shows how the use of simulation models can be useful in valuing a broker-dealer's derivative book and analyzing the asset-liability condition of financial intermediaries.

Description: Paper examines some of the current difficulties faced by defined benefit plans, and poses some solutions. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: This paper reviews the main methodological questions underlying the theoretical pricing of catastrophe insurance futures. From Securitization of Insurance Risk: The 1995 Bowles Symposium, M-FI978-1.

Description: This is the full version of CompAct Electronic Newsletter, August 2003, Issue No. 16.

Description: This paper explores the range of contribution policies allowable under various sets of rules, and then proposes that plan sponsors be allowed to contribute the normal cost as a deductible contribution each year. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: Chapter 2 examines the long history of social security in Mexico, noting that for most of its history, Mexican social security was highly selective and never universal. From Retrospective and Perspective Analysis of the Privatized Mandatory Pension System in Mexico, M-RS02-1.

Description: Paper presented at Living to 100 symposium January 2002. Study describes the increase in life expectancy at birth in Japan, the emergence of centenarians, the trends in the number of deaths of centenarians, and the increase in maximum reported age at death. Death rates above the age of 100 in Japan since 1963 are computed and analyzed. This study completes and updates results presented in a previous study Robine and Saito, 200X.