Description: This is a paper from the session on Climate Change Effects at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This paper presents an algorithm for valuing American options in a path simulation model. It demonstrates the accuracy by an example involving a put option on a non-dividend-paying stock for which the exact premium could be determined. It shows how the use of simulation models can be useful in valuing a broker-dealer's derivative book and analyzing the asset-liability condition of financial intermediaries.

Description: Full version of Actuary of the Future newsletter, Issue No. 23, November 2007.

Description: The paper argues that Risks Evaluation at its core is a psychological process that can lead to the special type of chaos described in modern Chaos Theory. It will argue that quantification and scientific modeling does not exempt risk assessment from the potential for deep biases. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This paper presents an analysis of mortality in a sample of 441adults aged 55 to 85 at baseline, who were observed for eight years. The study was initiated for the purpose of analyzing age-related changes in a variety of physical variables and their impact on functional independence. The modeling approach is discussed and the factors which were most significantly related to mortality.

Description: This paper reviews the main methodological questions underlying the theoretical pricing of catastrophe insurance futures. From Securitization of Insurance Risk: The 1995 Bowles Symposium, M-FI978-1.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. This paper adapts New Zealand Maori and non-Maori population mortality data to reflect differences in socio-economic status. This adapted data is used as a basis to explore the implications of differential mortality in assessing the equity of increase in the pension age of eligibility.

Description: Download the papers from the "A Study of Public Employees Retirement Systems" monograph.

Description: This paper takes the position that it is possible to compute annual pension costs without computing liabilities first, or at all, even implicitly. Moreover, such an approach can be shown to have powerful advantages in stochastic financial environments. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: The paper gives an overview of the data that are available and discusses the problems encountered in estimating mortality rates at old ages in the UK. It describes some of the methodologies used to construct mortality rates at advanced ages for official life tables and recent work undertaken by the UK Government Actuary’s Department to construct a database of historical mortality rates for the United Kingdom going back to 1961. Mortality tables for ages 85 and above are provided for years 1961 - 2000 by gender. Finally, possible methods for projecting mortality at advanced ages are discussed.