Description: Actuaries should understand the economic considerations involved in the formulary drug decision-making process, and the presence of actuarial input in the process could improve it, especially by tying it to overall decision making for the health plan. From Prescription Drugs Monograph, M-HB04-1.

Description: This paper deals with how the credibility levels change based on this lack knowledge. Group insuraace models are used, bill some of tile techniques could apply to any insurance risk.

Description: Recently, there has been growing interest among insurance and investment experts to focus on the use of a tail conditional expectation as a measure of risk, since it shares properties that are considered desirable and applicable in a variety of situations. This paper examines above risk measure in the case of a multivariate gamma portfolio. We demonstrate the explicit formulas for tail conditional expectation and based on it capital allocation when the proposed multivariate model consists of dependent and independent gamma marginals

Description: In 1993, the Chicago Board of Trade introduced a futures contract on a financial index that reflects the insurance claims emerging from catastrophes in a portfolio of policies. This article presents a valuation formula for the contract, under the assumption that catastrophes emerge as a Poisson process over time and that the claims from each catastrophe emerge as a Compound Poisson process. The formula is developed by taking conditional expectations with respect to a history of information that includes knowledge about the time of the catastrophes.

Description: It is obvious that the introduction of a deductible has two major effects. The amount paid for every claim will drop, resulting in a lower claim burden for the insurance company. There will also be a drop in claim frequency, leading to a decrease in claim handling expenses. However, it is by no means obvious how the average claim size changes with the introduction of a deductible. In this paper, we will study this question. First, we derive some theoretical results then apply them to concrete distributions.

Description: In this paper, we illustrate how to value American-style options using the Least-Squares Monte Carlo LSM approach proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz 2001 and investigate whether there exists an optimal regression complexity in the LSM framework for options pricing. In particular, we use the smoothing spline in the regression step, which allows us to control the regression complexity on a continuous scale with just one tuning parameter. Numerical results on American put options indicate that we need to use more than a linear regression, but as the regression becomes more complex, the accuracy of the LSM method quickly deteriorates. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference.

Description: This paper presents a new methodology for obtaining fast algorithms and closed form solutions for pricing callable bonds in continuous time models. Results are directly applicable to regulatory scenario testing, immunization and market value accounting.

Description: In this study the author will review some correlations between the operating income per employee and some elements of company structure for the S&P 500 that are proxies for management control and supervision. An analysis yielded the following general observations: 1 companies in which the chairman and CEO roles are combined generate more income per employee than those in which the roles are separate 2 companies with a lead director and the chairman and CEO combined typically do better still 3 the more executive officers a company has, the higher operating income is generated per employee although this decreases marginally and 4 companies tend to gravitate toward a structure with 10 executive officers and 10 directors this is a fixed point of an iterative decision function. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Obsolescence of physical assets and processes is a major component of operational risk for some companies. A simulation experiment shows that managers, who consider the retirement and replacement of individual assets in isolation, have rational incentives, due to risk aversion and uncertainty, to defer the replacement of assets past a time that is optimal from the perspective of the shareholder who owns the entire portfolio of such assets. This results in measurable wealth destruction, —and a demonstrable opportunity to significantly enhance a company’s value. A practical decision model for the replacement timing of fixed, physical assets, which creates wealth by minimizing the long-term consumption of scarce resources, is provided.

Description: This paper demonstrates that using a conditional probability approach to analyzing investment data yields investment forecast and stock option pricing models which more closely match actual market data, and it demonstrates the impact that conditional probabilities could have on CAPM beta and risk premia calculations. Reprinted from: Journal of Financial and Economic Practice, Vol. 6 No. 2 Spring 2006.