Description: Two letters to the editor of Pension Section News. Both letters are responses to David Langer's comments which were published in the January 2006 Pension Section News regarding Social Security and its financial projections. From Pension Section News, April 2006, No. 61.

Description: A letter to the editor regarding how the Social Security trustees project Social Security costs: Is it actuarial science or politics? From Pension Section News, January 2006, No. 60.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Futurism section members participated in this Delphi study, which had multiple choice questions on a range of life, health, economic and professional issues. The article provides background on the study and comments on the predictions of participants for 2010 (and 2050) in light of experience to date.

Description: As providers are considering accountable and value based care models, it is critical to strategically think through how to achieve a sustainable business model into the future. This requires actuarial and clinical/provider capabilities to assess the care management and financial levers to help a client through the transition.

Description: The article describes what a Delphi study entails; describes past Delphi studies conducted by the SOA; and summarizes "Land This Plane" - A Delphi Study about Long-Term Care in the United States, which was published by the SOA in April 2014.

Description: A discussion on the myths of artificial intelligence.

Description: Can the aggregate results from a group be used to forecast something as subjective and judgmental as one single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a set of techniques known as collaborative filtering which is discussed at length in this article.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: Profile of an actuary in a non-traditional actuarial role: focusing on medical cost and analysis, both retrospective and prospective.