Description: Summary of SOA modeling sessions from 2017, part 2.

Description: Discusses 1. the impact of increased yields on new investments on premiums, dividends and policy values, 2. the criteria of equity which should be observed when different basic assumptions or underwriting standards are employed for different plans, 3. pricing of substandard policies, 4. handling situations where premium payments aggregate more than the face amount, and 5. recognizing mortality trends in pricing settlement options.

Description: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: The paper o ers a simple framework for ranking the common reinsurance struc- tures in practice with the theory of stochastic orders. The basic idea is to slice the space of reinsurance structures into groups by expected loss cost to facilitate the comparisons within the group and between groups. Given the standard risk aversion assumption in economics, a spectrum of reinsurance structures with the same expected loss cost can be compared analytically with one another and sequenced based on their risk coverages under the convex order. The paper then expands the dimension of the comparison to groups of reinsurance structures with di erent expected loss costs, which can be ranked under the increasing convex order and the usual stochastic order. As such, the paper maps out the ordering for the entire space of reinsurance structures and presents it in a ma- trix format for quick reference. The implication

Description: Third article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: An Overview of Stochastic Simulation modeling techniques and usages

Description: This article will consider several issues arising from ACO budgeting and pricing of stoploss coverage, including: 1) attribution of members; 2) claim carve outs; 3) ambiguous stoploss terms; 4) providers gaming the system and 5) credibility of data.

Description: A method to price a term life policy to properly reflect the post conversion experience. Also reserving methods, in both the term and perm products.

Description: ERM may exist in name only without a risk-aware culture. The article uses battle-tested approaches & behavioral insights to drive change and embed risk culture.

Description: Cyber threats and their costs are a continuously evolving, moving target and a source of uncertainty.